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Recent Analysis

Data Reports

Short Pieces

About FMI
Titles below discuss inflation. If it is the main topic,
'P' will appear in the parenthesis. If it is a secondary theme, 'p' will appear.
Key Short Piece Key Data Latest Forecast
Price Inflation (P)
2005    2004    2003    2002     2001     2000     1999     1998     1997    1994-1996
Organized by Category
Fed Policy (F)

Labor Market (L)

Consumer (C)

Economy/View (E)

Price Inflation (P)

International (I)

Government (G)

Theory (T)

Data Detail (D)

09/20/16 - Falling Food Prices Give Only Modest Boost to Real Income (P)
02/05/16 - Core PCE Likely Understates the ‘True’ Inflation Trend (P,d)

04/24/15 - The Case for Lowering the Fed's Inflation Target (F,p)

2014
11/21/14 - US Deflation Is Very Unlikely, Would Be Harmless (P)
07/23/14 - Fed Cranks Up Financial Excesses as It Dismisses Inflation (P,f)
05/16/14 - Memo to Fed: Stop Being Scared of Deflation Bogeyman (P)
05/15/14 - Inflation Is Muted? Not According to 2014 Data (P)

2011
03/21/12 - By Any Measure, Inflation Is Near Fed’s +2% Target (P,d)
02/10/11 - Housing Inflation Starting to Accelerate (P)
2008

06/13/08 - Fed Likely to Hike Rates Soon, Target Rate at 4% or Higher in '09 (F,p)
05/21/08 - Despite Good Core News, Inflation Likely to Worsen Ahead (P,d)
04/25/08 - 'Sick' Health Care Readings Understating Core Inflation (P)


2007
06/11/07 - Fed Has Reason for Caution: Overall Inflation Still Too High (F,p)
05/23/07 - Housing Inflation Improving, But Not as Much as It Seems (P)

2006
09/21/06 - ‘Trimmed’ Measures Show Weightier Inflation Problem (P,d)
08/11/06 - FOMC Goes Silent on Productivity; Inflation Outlook Too Rosy (F,p)
08/04/06 - Wage Income, Unit Labor Cost Trends Noticeably Higher  (C,p)
05/25/06 - Inflation Is Lower -- But Really Higher -- Than It Seems (P)

2005
09/23/05 - Total Inflation, Not Core, Should Be the Main Focus Again (P, d)
08/16/05 - Commodity Prices Rising, But Have Little Impact on Inflation (P,d)
04/13/05 - Easy Fed Policy, Not Wages, Is Driving Inflation Higher (P,d)
03/28/05 - Fed’s Core Fallacies Understating Inflation Prospects (P,d)

2004
10/25/04 - Housing, Not Hedonics, Distorts CPI & Likely Fed Policy (P,f)
07/15/04 - 04H1: An Inflation Story  (E, p)
05/17/04 - Deflation 'Scare': The Fed's Self-Fulfilling Prophecy (P,f)

2003
03/20/03 - Higher Inflation, Not Deflation, Is Real Issue  (P)

2002
07/18/02 - If We Must, Some Thoughts On Deflation (P,t)
03/15/02 - FMI Sees "Neutral" Fed Target Rate As 3% (F,p)
01/14/02 - All Quiet On The Inflation Front (P,f,e)

2001
12/12/01 - Do Not Expect Rate Hike Until PM Index Rises Above 54 (F,e,p)
11/28/01 - High Median CPI Readings Not A Concern (P,c,e)
06/15/01 - Revisiting Fed Policy's Impact On Inflation Trends (P,f,e)
05/18/01 - FMI Does Not See Inflation Problem Now Or Later (P,e)

2000
09/21/00 - Examining Shifts In Computer & Software Prices (P,e)
09/08/00 - Hi-Tech Threatening Overall Price Stability Near-Term (P,e)
04/24/00 - Comparing The CPI To The Consumption Deflator (P,t,d)
04/18/00 - Inflation Up; Bad News For Fed, Stocks, & Bonds (P,f,t)
04/14/00 - AG Signals That Fed Unlikely To Bail Out Investors Even If Turmoil Continues (F,e,p)
03/17/00 - Economy Looks Good; Still Threat Of Higher Inflation (E,p) 

1999
12/16/99 - All Is Not So Quiet On The Inflation Front (P)
12/14/99 - Income Data: 'True' Wage Growth More Than +5% (P,l) 
11/16/99 - FOMC Should Raise Rates - Not Be Fooled By Distortions (F,p)
09/16/99 - Based On ES202, Current Wage Growth Likely 5+%, Not 4-% (P,l,d) 
09/10/99 - Fed Concern: Core Intermediate PPI Growth Up To 4.3% (P,f)
09/09/99 - Improving Growth Abroad Might Lead To Higher Inflation (P,e)
08/20/99 - CPI Housing Gains Understated Some; Should Pick Up Near-Term (D,p)
06/18/99 - New Aggregate CPI Without Discontinuities Available (P,d)
05/13/99 - Current Compensation Costs Being Understated (L,p)
04/16/99 - Import Price Not As Deflationary As They Had Been (D,p,e)
03/26/99 - Phillips Curve Revisited; Higher Inflation Likely In '00 If Jobless Rate Falls Below 4% (P,l)

1998
12/23/98 - BLS To Introduce Important Changes To CPI In 1999 (D,p)
02/18/98 - Benchmark Will Have Little Effect On CPI Growth  (D,p)

1997
08/07/97 - Commodity Indices Rising Despite Strong Dollar (P)
07/29/97 - Greenspan: Benign Inflation May Be The Result Of A Productivity Growth Surge (F,p)
04/23/97 - Analysis Of Geometric-Mean CPI (P,d,t)
04/22/97 - Technical Adjustments Continue To Improve CPI (D,p,t)
03/24/97 - Cleveland Fed’s Median CPI Offers Alternative View Of Inflation (P,d)
03/05/97 - Medical & Housing Costs On The Rise; Higher Inflation Likely In 97-98 (P)
02/05/97 - Import Price Surges Often Hold Down GDP Deflator (P,d)

1994-1996
12/06/96 - CPI Overstates COLA But Less Than Boskin Commission Suggests (P,t,d)
08/22/96 - Commodity Prices Have Little Impact On Inflation (P,d)
05/10/96 - CRB Futures Signal NAPM Price Index, But Not Overall Inflation (P)
04/18/95 - Low Export & Import Inflation Was Helping Hold Down U.S. Inflation (P,i)
03/13/95 - Service Wages, A Useful Signal of Inflation, Clearly Accelerating (P,d)
02/27/95 - Capacity Utilization Suggests Core CPI To Accelerating In Coming Year  (P,l,e)
02/09/95 - BLS Statistical Technique Favors Consensus Estimates  (P)
12/13/94 - BLS Rounding Sometimes Favors Certain Results; Consensus Estimates (P)



Recent Analysis Data Reports Short Pieces About FMI

Last Modified: Friday, June 13, 2008 03:05 PM. Copyright 1998 Free Market, Inc. All rights reserved.