05/19/23 - Debt Ceiling Drama Is Much Ado About Nothing (G)
2022
10/18/22 - The One Sure Midterm Election Outcome: Gridlock (G)
08/12/22 - ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ Will Surely Increase Inflation (G)
06/23/22 - Gas Tax Waivers, Tariff Cuts Will Do Nothing to Halt Inflation (G)

2021
11/22/21 - UI Fraud Led to Millions of Fake Beneficiaries (L,g)
09/30/21 - Much Ado About Nothing: No Debt Ceiling Default, Shutdown (G)
06/07/21 - Yellen’s Big Weekend Was Just Empty Posturing (G)
05/17/21 - ‘Red’ State Cuts Will Slash UI Benefit Rolls by -2MM (G,l)
05/13/21 - Yes, Too-Generous UI Benefits Are Taking a Big Toll on Jobs (G,l)
03/12/21 - Stimulus Goes Mostly to Those Who Will Not Spend Near-Term (G)
02/10/21 - Fiscal Stimulus: Little Near-Term Benefit, Huge Medium-Term Costs (G,l)
01/21/21 - The Biden Presidency: An Economic Prospective (G)
2020
10/28/20 - Seven Days That Will NOT Change the World (G)
10/07/20 - Breakdown in Stimulus Talks Doesn't Change Upbeat Outlook (G)
09/17/20 - Congress May Yet Pass Another (5th) Fiscal Stimulus Package (G)
07/30/20 - GOP & Democrats Likely to Agree to +$2T More in Stimulus (G)
05/18/20 - Powell Fumbles Badly on Outlook, Fiscal Recommendations (F,g)
04/27/20 - Expanded UI Benefits Will Slow the Recovery (G,l)
04/21/20 - COVID-19 Fiscal Stimulus Is Timely, Well-Targeted (G,e)
04/17/20 - Trump 6-Week PlanShould Deliver in 8-10 Weeks (G,e)
04/13/20 - COVID-19: A Roller-Coaster Economic Recovery (E,g)
03/25/20 - Can America ‘Re-Open’ for Business by Easter? Yes and No (E,g)
03/19/20 - Fiscal Stimulus Will Help Set Up Economy for Rebound (G,e)
02/17/20 - On Presidents' Day, How Much Do Presidents Matter to Economy? (G)
01/24/20 - Declining Unions Will Benefit Trump Re-Election Bid (G)
2019
11/26/19 - SNAP/Food Stamp Benefits Remain Historically High (G)
11/18/19 - Entitlements a Long-Term Crisis that Will Never Arrive (G)
10/07/19 - 2020 Census to Hire -200K Fewer Temps than in 2010 (G,l)
05/10/19 - ‘Tariff War’ Flares Up, But Deal Still Likely Later this Year (G,I)
02/20/19 - Stock Buybacks Herald Future Capital Investment Growth (G)
01/24/19 - Economy Will Rebound in 19Q2 from Shutdown Drag in 19Q1 (G)
01/18/19 - Shutdown to Drag Down 19Q1 GDP, Rebound Follows (G)
2018
12/18/18 - Government ‘Shutdown’ Would Have Minimal Macro Impact (G)
11/27/18 - 2017 Tax Cut to Pay Economic Dividends for Years (G)
11/19/18 - Left and Right Both Hate It -- Good Sign for Amazon HQ Deal (G)
11/07/18 - ‘Purple Puddle’ Election Points to Fiscal Gridlock Ahead (G)
10/11/18 - Tariff Drag on U.S. Should Be Much Less Than Expected (G,I)
09/11/18 - Democrat Takeover of House Will Not Change Fiscal Policy (G)
08/24/18 - Trump Tariff ‘Wars’ Having Minimal Economic Impact in U.S. (G,i)
06/28/18 - Trump's Trade War: Modest Drag Near-Term, But Long-Term Benefit (G,i)
05/20/18 - Federal Tax Cut Means More Revenue for Some States (G)
05/11/18 - Corporate Tax Cut to Yield More Investment & Wages, Gradually (G)
04/23/18 - Tax Cuts to Boost GDP Trend by +0.7%, Add a Million Jobs (G)
03/19/18 - Trillion-Dollar Federal Deficits Are Best-Case Scenario Ahead (G)
02/13/18 - Trump Growth Projections Are High But Not Absurd (G)
02/06/18 - No Government ‘Shutdown,’ Budget Deal to Boost Spending (G)
01/19/18 - Government ‘Shutdown’ Poses No Economic Threat (G)
01/02/18 - Minimum Wages Rose in 18 States in January (L,g)

2017
12/18/17 - Tax Cuts to Boost After-Tax Income by +1.5%, on Average (G)
12/04/17 - Final Tax Reform Will Mostly Reflect Senate Version (G)
11/10/17 - Senate Tax Reform Bill Points Way to Compromise with House (G)
11/03/17 - House Tax Plan Would Stimulate Economy on the Margin (G)
10/05/17 - GOP Tax Reform Hinges on Killing S&L Tax Deduction (G)
09/15/17 - Solid Chance for Major Tax Reforms by Year-End (G)
08/09/17 - Debt Ceiling Will Be Raised, Much Ado About Nothing (G)
07/21/17 - The Bumpier Road to a 'Trump Bump' in Fiscal Policy (G)
07/13/17 - State & Local Gov’t Contribution to GDP to Remain Modest (G)
06/16/17 - New Regulations to Slow Sharply, Some Rollback Likely (G)
05/25/17 - Trump Seeks Big Discretionary Budget Cut, Should Get Some (G)
05/17/17 - Trump Tax Plan Targets Mortgage Interest, S&L Deductions (G)
04/21/17 - Infrastructure Stimulus Has Poor Track Record (G)
03/20/17 - Trump Has an (Uphill) Path to Cure ACA Ailments (G)
02/10/17 - Trump Starts Out with Good Economy (But Bad for Him) (G,e)
01/20/17 - Obama Gets More Credit -- & More Blame -- than He Deserves (G)
01/04/17 - Minimum Wage Up in 20 States, Some by +10% or More (G,l)

2016
11/09/16 - The Day After: A Revised Fiscal Outlook (G)
10/25/16 - And the Winner Is... the Fiscal Status Quo (G)
08/26/16 - Government ‘Helping Hand’ Is Choking Potential GDP (G,l)
05/20/16 - New OT Rules Will Hurt Many, Put Drag on Economy (G,l)
05/13/16 - ACA Devouring Most Savings from Sequester, Low Rates (G)
05/06/16 - Affordable Care Act Falling Short on Most Fronts (G)

2015
11/24/15 - Federal Spending Up in ‘16; S&L Provides Bigger GDP Boost (G)
11/06/15 - ACA Boosting Health Care at Expense of Other Consumption (C,g)
06/16/15 - State & Local Outlook Looks Good for FY2016 (G)
05/14/15 - ACA Subsidy Snafus Responsible for Part of 2015 Lull (C,g)
02/13/15 - State & Local Outlook Continues to Firm Near-Term (G)

2014
11/05/14 - GOP Wave Shakes Up Politics, Should Have Little Economic Impact (G)
10/16/14 - FY2014 Federal Deficit Improvement Will Be Short-Lived (G)
08/22/14 - ACA Limiting Payroll Job Gains, Raising Employees’ Costs (G)|
04/25/14 - ACA Enrollment Will Plunge by Year-End (G,c)
02/13/14 - ACA Cuts Labor Force, Jobs and Most Households’ Income (G,c)
01/24/14 - EUC End Should Not Lower Jobless Rate in January (L,g)

2013
12/12/13 - Budget Deal to Increase Spending, Provide Negligible Boost to GDP (G)
11/15/13 - ACA Shifts Spending to Healthcare from Other Goods (G,c)
11/15/13 - ACA Boosts Healthcare Consumption, Cuts Other Goods/Svcs (G)
10/16/13 - Federal Shutdown: Much Ado for Nothing (G)
10/07/13 - Federal Workers Could File 100K 'UI' Claims (G)
10/04/13 - Shutdown Should Have Modest Impact on 13Q4 (G)
08/13/13 - Sequester, Special Factors Slash Federal Deficit in FY2013 (G)
07/26/13 - Unlike Past Swoons, Real GDP Should Rebound in 2nd Half (E,g)
07/02/13 - UI Cuts Will Help Lower Jobless Rate Some in 2013-14 (L,g)
05/23/13 - Get Your Scandal Scorecards Here! (G)
04/24/13 - Airline Delays Not Enough to Stop Sequester or Boost Spending (G)
04/09/13 - Obama SocSec Proposal Only Strengthens GOP Hand (G)
03/22/13 - Both Democrat and GOP Budgets Fall Short of Promise (G)
02/27/13 - Federal Sequester Facts and Fictions (G)
02/19/13 - Sequester Cuts Likely to Happen, For About 2 Weeks (G)
01/18/13 - Fiscal Wargames: Only Way to Win is Not to Play (G)
01/08/13 - $1-Trillion Coin Could 'Fix' Debt Ceiling, at High Cost (G, f)
01/04/13 - Countdown to Next Crisis: 2nd Big Tax Hike Coming Soon (G)
01/02/13 - Fiscal Cliff Deal: No Surprises, No Solutions (G)

2012
11/07/12 - Obama, GOP House Will Compromise to Stop Fiscal Cliff (G)
10/22/12 - 'Invisible Hand' Wins Thumb-Wrestling Match with Obama (G)
10/05/12 - Surveying the Deficiencies in Political Polls (G)
08/22/12 - Fiscal Cliff-Diving: CBO Warns of -3% GDP Plunge in 13H1 (G)
08/10/12 - Online Markets Bet on Obama Win Followed by Recession (G)
08/09/12 - Red-Letter Days for Campaign, Fed: August 30, Sept.13l (G)
07/03/12 - Scaling Down the Fiscal Cliff (G)
02/17/12 - No Matter Who Wins, Expect Only Modest Fiscal Drag in 2013 (G)
01/18/12 - Fed Housing Plan Is Poor Politics, Bad Economics (F,g)

2011
12/12/11 - Payroll Tax Deal -- Little Fiscal Stimulus or Drag in 2012 (G)
11/14/11 - 2011 Elections: Obamacare the Big Loser (G)
10/21/11 - Putting the Hurt on OWS Protests (G)
10/13/11 - A Nobel Conflict: Sargent vs. Krugman/Obama (G,f)
09/21/11 - Fiscal Drag Will Be Modest in Jan. ’12, Killer in Jan. ‘13 (G)
08/15/11 - Policy Solutions – Is There Will? There Are Ways (G)
08/01/11 - Debt Deal Does Diddly, Delays Dire Decisions (G)
07/26/11 - Debt Ceiling Will Be Lifted, But Deal Won’t Fix Fiscal Mess (G)
06/16/11 - New Finance Regs Will Have Little Longer-Term Impact (G)
04/12/11 - Who Won the Budget Face-OfF? What's Next? (G)
04/07/11 - This Fight Is Pocket Change; Real Struggle Begins in FY12 (G)
03/07/11 - Governors Taking Lead on Cutting Spending, Long-Term Reform (G)
01/24/11 - S&L Gov't Will Be a Drag on Economy for Years (G)

2010
11/19/10 - Can Congress Cut Spending & Be Re-elected? Let’s Find Out1 (G)
11/04/10 - GOP Dominates State Races, Biggest Margin in 80 Years (G)
09/14/10 - Bush Tax Cuts Likely Extended Only for Lower Brackets (G)
08/26/10 - S&L Governments Will Continue to Shed Jobs (G)
08/19/10 - Policymakers Impotent; Doing More Would Make It Worse (G)
08/05/10 - U.S. Is Avoiding Japan’s Crippling Policy Mistakes (G)
07/27/10 - New Financial Law Has Broad Scope, Modest Impact (G)
07/20/10 - Lending ‘Crunch’ Not Behind Sluggish Small Biz Hiring (E,g)
04/13/10 - S&L Government to Be Drag on GDP for Years (G)
03/25/10 - Drag from Obamacare Intensifies in 2013 (G)
01/12/10 - Don't Count on the Census for Economic Boost (G)
01/07/10 - ‘Cadillac’ Health Insurance Tax Will Generate Chevy Revenue (G)

2009
10/27/09 - Home Prices Are At/Near Bottom, Should Rise Some in 2010 (E,g)
10/20/09 - Flash Forward: Recovery Solid, But Tax Threat Looming (E,g)
08/19/09 - Cash-for-Clunkers: The Katrina School of Economic Stimulus (G)
06/08/09 - State Budget Woes Likely to Help GOP in 2010 Elections (G)
05/22/09 - CAFE Oy Vey: New Regulations Impose Heavy Costs (G)
04/06/09 - For the Wages of Sin Is Death, Plus Tax (G)
03/20/09 - Policymakers Dithering; Bernanke Last Adult in Room (G,f)
02/24/09 - A Return to Lax Lending; Pay Other People's Mortgages (G)
02/19/09 - FSP: Valuation of Toxic Assets Remains Big Hurdle (G)
02/16/09 - Policy Primer: Stimulus to Boost 09Q2-Q3, Reduce Later Growth (G)
01/27/09 - A Massive Stimulus, For 2010; Geithner's Follies (E,g)

2008
11/14/08 - The Obama Presidency: An Economic Preview (G)
09/24/08 - Congress Can't Repeal Law of Unintended Consequences (G, f)
09/18/08 - The Federal Bailout: What Next? (G)
02/27/08 - Little Fiscal Boost Until 08Q3, After Worst Has Passed (G, e)
01/18/08 - Slowing Sales Taxes Say Little About Consumer Outlook(G, c)

2007
06/13/07 - State & Local Government to Provide Solid Boost to Economy (G)
01/24/07 - Expiring Tax Cuts, Surging Entitlements Haunt Fiscal Outlook (G)
01/10/07 - Fiscal Policy to Stay Course Despite Democratic Takeover (G)

2006
11/06/06 - Election to Have Minimal Impact on Federal Policy (G)
04/24/06 - Massachusetts Health Plan Mixes Mandates & Market Forces (G)

2005
11/22/05 - State & Local Sector to Provide Solid Boost to Economy (G)
07/26/05 - Federal Government, States See Surging Revenue Growth (G)
06/16/05 - China Currency Reforms Unlikely to Benefit U.S. (I, g)
03/04/05 - Greenspan's Less-Than-Nuclear Option (G)
02/08/05 - OMB Deficit Estimate, Off $110B in FY04, Looks on Target in ‘05 (G)

2004
12/15/04 - Private Social Security Accounts Offer Better Deal, Ownership (G)
11/16/04 - Social Security Privatization Likely; Tax, Tort Reform Less So (G)
10/13/04 - Corporate Tax Cut Shows That Fiscal Discipline Is Off the Radar( G)
09/23/04 - CBO Deficit Outlook Low-Balls Spending, Real GDP Growth (G)
07/26/04 - Business Cycle Trumps the Election Cycle  (G)
06/07/04 - GOP Likely to Keep Congress, Regardless of Presidential Vote (G)
05/18/04 - Long-Term Fiscal Imbalance More Manageable Than It Seems (G)
04/22/04 - Kerry Recruits Clinton Deficit Hawks for Economic Team (G)
04/07/04 - 2001 Tax Cut Increased Relative Burden on the ‘Rich’ (G)
03/24/04 - Jobless Rate Does Not Show Much Labor Market Slack (L,g)
02/24/04 - Protectionism, Not Outsourcing, Is Real Threat to U.S. Jobs (G, e)
02/19/04 - Low-Wage/High-Benefits Growth Mix Behind Revenue Shortfall (G, l)
01/27/04 - Federal FY04 Deficit Likely to be Better Than Expected  (G)

2003
11/20/03 - GOP Likely To Expand Senate Control in ’04 (G)
09/11/03 - 03H2 Fiscal Stimulus To Be Followed By More In ‘04 (G)
08/06/03 - Cautious Builders, Bankers Make Housing Bubble-Proof (E,g)
06/17/03 - Medicare Drug Benefit To Greatly Exceed $400B Cost (G)
06/10/03 - S&L Problems To Offset Some, But Not A Lot, Of Federal Tax Cut (G)
05/22/03 - Sunsets Conceal True Size Of $350B Tax Compromise (G)
02/13/03 - Greenspan Dents Hopes For Full Passage Of '03 Tax Cut (G)
01/09/03 - Bush Tax Plan Stands Better Chance Than Most Expect  (G)

2002
12/10/02 - Failure Is An Option (Sometimes The Best One)  (G)
12/05/02 - Greenspan Is As ‘Dovish’ As Ever  (F,g)
11/14/02 - Regime Change In Congress To Produce Only Modest Stimulus (G)
11/04/02 - Elections Apt To Yield Little Change In Fiscal Policy (G)
09/23/02 - Federal Deficits Likely To FY2010 & Beyond (G)
09/06/02 - Federal Deficits Likely To Be Larger Than CBO Estimate (G)
07/24/02 - State & Local Gov't Budgets Under Pressure (G)
05/02/02 - Defense Hike: Short-Term Positive, Long-Term Negative (E,g)
02/06/02 - CBO Budget More Relevant Than OMB; Stimulus DOA (G,e)

2001
11/14/01 - State & Local Gov't Budgets Taking Turn For The Worse (G)
09/20/01 - Policy Vs. Uncertainty: Economy Weak Near-Term (E,f,g)
09/13/01 - Economic Implications Of September 11 Tragedy (E,f,g)
07/25/01 - GOP-Created Lockbox Is Perverse Policy Constraint (G,e)
06/12/01 - Like '68 Surcharge, '01 Tax Cut Will Have Limited Impact (E,c,g)
04/17/01 - Bush Tax Cut Should Aid Consumers In 2001 (G,e,c)
03/02/01 - Official Bush Estimates Out: Tax Cut Still Modest (G,e)
02/22/01 - Still Early, But Tax Refund Story Appears Dull (E,g)
02/16/01 - Do Not Expect Much Fiscal Discipline (G)
02/09/01 - Bush Tax Plan Not That Historically Large (G,e)
02/08/01 - Highlights Of Tax Legislation: 1980's & 1990s (G,e)
02/08/01 - Highlights Of Tax Legislation: 1960s & 1970s (G,e)
01/11/01 - O'Neill: Able But Unexpected Appointee (G)

2000
12/14/00 - Likely Bush Appointments At Fed & Treasury (F,g)
08/21/00 - Next President May Find That 6 of 7 FOMC Positions Need Filling (G,f)
06/14/00 - Gov't Sector Now Adds +0.6% To Real GDP Growth (G)

1999
12/06/99 - Ignored Caps Should Soon Be Replaced By 'Lock-Box' (G) 
11/19/99 - Fiscal Discipline Ending; Discretionary Spending Up 6+% (G)
09/24/99 - More Evasion Of Spending Caps; 'Black' Beige Book Details (G,f)
05/19/99 - Summers & Eizenstat Appointments Mean Little (G)
04/27/99 - Fed No Longer Sees Need To Be Preemptive (F,g)
03/05/99 - Economy Still Eden-Like; Greenspan May Not Be Reappointed; Spending Caps Likely To Be Altered (E,f,g)
03/05/99 - IRS Update: Tax Credits Spur Higher Refunds; Big Tax Bills To Follow Later (C,g)
02/23/99 - Refunds Up Big, Aided By Tax Credits & E-Filings (C,g)
02/03/99 - Clinton's Guns & Butter; Major Social Security Scam (G)

1998
12/09/98 - Federal Outlays To Rise 5+% In FY1999 (G)
10/23/98 - 'Pork Barrel' Politics Returning; Economy Slowing (G, e, f)
09/09/98 - Both Monetary & Fiscal Stimulation Likely In 1999 (F,g,e)
01/20/98 - Political Climate Favors Tax Cut In 1998  (E,g)

1997
08/01/97 - FMI’s View Of The Balanced Budget Agreement  (G)
05/07/97 - Budget Pact Does Not Brighten The Long-Term Budget Outlook  (G)
05/06/97 - Budget Agreement May Actually Provide Near -Term Fiscal Stimulus  (G)
04/03/97 - IRS Tax Refunds Are Not Distorting Cons. Pattern  (C,g)
02/19/97 - Analysis Of Clinton’s FY98 Budget (G)

1995-1996
10/25/96 - Gov't Sector To Weigh Less On GDP Growth  (G,e)
06/11/96 - Federal Discretionary Spending To Surge In Coming Months  (G)
05/17/96 - Left-Over Clinton Appropriations To Be Stimulative  (E,g)
04/17/96 - Pace Of Tax Refunds Ahead Of Last Year, But Not Unusually Fast  (C,g)
03/22/96 - Analysis Of '96 Tax Refunds  (C,g)
01/17/96 - Balanced Budget Negotiations Near The End  (G)
01/05/96 - Effects Of The Government Shutdown  (G)
11/21/95 - Federal Workers Back; Economic Data Release Dates Revised  (G)
11/14/95 - Fiscal Chaos Could Have Big Temporary Economic Impacts  (G)
10/11/95 - If Clinton & Congress Cannot Agree, Fiscal Chaos May Reign Soon  (G)
06/06/95 - IRS Issues Record Refunds  (C,g)
03/21/95 - Slow Payment of Tax Refunds To Take Off 1% From GDP Growth  (C,g)