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Short Pieces

About FMI
FMI produces frequent, one-page articles focusing on a range of economic and investment issues.
Past pieces (to 1994) are organized into 9 categories.
Key Short Piece Key Data Latest Forecast
Short Pieces:
Organized by Category
Fed Policy (F)

Labor Market (L)

Consumer (C)

Economy/View (E)

Price Inflation (P)

International (I)

Government (G)

Theory (T)

Data Detail (D)

Recent Pieces Organized By Date:
Commentaries ...more
09/20/17 - FOMC Starts Shrinking Balance Sheet, Expects Gradual Rate Hikes (F)
09/15/17 - Solid Chance for Major Tax Reforms by Year-End (G)
09/12/17 - Hurricanes Won't Sway Fed Policy or the Macro Outlook (F,e)
09/08/17 - BLS Birth-Death Payroll Model 99.9% Correct, as Usual (D,l)
08/28/17 - Harvey Should Have Only Modest Macro Impact (E)
08/24/17 - BLS Household Survey Shows Wages Growing Briskly (L)
08/09/17 - Debt Ceiling Will Be Raised, Much Ado About Nothing (G)
07/26/17 - FOMC: Shrinkage Should Start in September (F)
07/21/17 - The Bumpier Road to a 'Trump Bump' in Fiscal Policy (G)
07/13/17 - State & Local Gov’t Contribution to GDP to Remain Modest (G)
07/12/17 - Yellen Is Still in the Hunt for a Second Term as Fed Chair (F)
07/05/17 - No Surprise: Fed Aims to Start Trimming Assets in September (F)
06/23/17 - New Regulations to Slow Sharply, Some Rollback Likely (G)
06/16/17 - Too-Low Interest Rates Discourage Lending & Investment (F)
06/15/17 - Yellen Says Shrinking Balance Sheet No Big Deal (FMI Agrees) (F)
06/14/17 - Fed Dismisses Low Inflation; Balance Sheet to Shrink 'Soon' (F)
06/09/17 - No Surprises: FOMC Likely to Stay on Course Next Week (F)
05/25/17 - Trump Seeks Big Discretionary Budget Cut, Should Get Some (G)
05/17/17 - Trump Tax Plan Targets Mortgage Interest, S&L Deductions (G)
05/11/17 - Soft & Hard Data Agree: Conditions OK, Likely to Get Better (E,d)
05/03/17 - FOMC Leaves Door (Wide) Open for Summer Rate Hike (F)
04/25/17 - After Q1 Lull, Real GDP to Surge Near +4% in 17Q2 (E)
04/21/17 - Infrastructure Stimulus Has Poor Track Record (G)
04/20/17 - More Labor Slack than U-3 Says But Less than Doves Hope (L)
04/07/17 - Vehicles Sales on Cruise Control, Likely 17+ mm in 2017 (E)
04/05/17 - Fed Likely to Stop Reinvesting Assets by September (F)
03/24/17 - Solid Housing/Income Fundamentals to Offset Rising Rates (E)
03/20/17 - Trump Has an (Uphill) Path to Cure ACA Ailments (G)
03/15/17 - FOMC Tilting Hawkish, Though No 4th Hike in 2017 (Yet) (F)
03/13/17 - 10-Year Bond Yield to Keep Trending Up, 4% by late 2018 (E,f)
02/24/17 - New QSS Report Provides Advance Peak at Services Results (D)
02/16/17 - Yellen Likely to Hike Rates in Late Spring as Inflation Perks Up (F)
02/10/17 - Trump Starts Out with Good Economy (But Bad for Him) (G,e)
02/01/17 - Next Rate Hike Likely Coming in June (Possibly May) (F)
01/26/17 - FOMC Dissents to Dip in 2017 But Don't Matter Anyway (F)
01/20/17 - Obama Gets More Credit -- & More Blame -- than He Deserves (G)
01/11/17 - For 2017, New FOMC Same as the Old FOMC (F)
01/04/17 - Minimum Wage Up in 20 States, Some by +10% or More (G,l)
12/16/16 - Four Takeaways from the FOMC Meeting (F)
12/14/16 - FOMC Says Three More Rate Hikes Coming in 2017 (F)
11/18/16 - U.S. Economy Does Have Labor Slack, But Not Much (L,d)
11/15/16 - ADP Jobs Model Gets Bragging Rights, For Now (D,l)
11/09/16 - The Day After: A Revised Fiscal Outlook (G)
11/02/16 - Yellen Likely to Be Re-Appointed under Clinton or Trump (F)
11/02/16 - FOMC Sets the Table for a December Rate Hike (F)
10/25/16 - And the Winner Is... the Fiscal Status Quo (G)
10/20/16 - Fed Banks Ramping Up Pressure for Further Rate Hikes (F)
10/19/16 - Real GDP Rebounded Nicely in 16Q3, Respectable Trend Ahead (E)
10/14/16 - Brexit Anxiety: Penny Foolish, Pound-Wise (I)
10/11/16 - ‘Kitchen Sink’ Era Ending for Global Monetary Policy (F,i)
09/23/16 - Census Income Detail: Softer Wages, Rising S&L Gov't Pensions (C)
09/21/16 - FOMC: One Rate Hike Still Coming This Year, Two in 2017 (F)
09/20/16 - No Rate Hike in September, One in December, Two-ish in 2017 (F)
09/20/16 - Falling Food Prices Give Only Modest Boost to Real Income (P)
09/16/16 - PMI Is No Longer ‘A-List’ Data, But Still Relevant (D)
09/14/16 - Census Survey Wildly Overstates Household Income Gain (C)
08/26/16 - Government ‘Helping Hand’ Is Choking Potential GDP (G,l)
08/23/16 - Nearly Half the FOMC Wants to Raise Rates in September (F)
08/17/16 - FOMC Turns Bit More Hawkish, But Still Waiting on Data (F)
07/27/16 - FOMC Looking Forward Again to Resuming Rate Hikes (F)
07/21/16 - At Last, Inventory Correction Complete; Stocks Neutral Ahead (E)
07/12/16 - Growing Number of Fed Banks Lobby for Rate Hikes (F)
07/06/16 - (Baseless) Fear of Low Inflation Caused FOMC to Back Off in June (F)
06/24/16 - Brexit Panic Should Abate Soon; Little Macro Damage (I)
06/17/16 - What Changed the FOMC's Mind in June? (F)
06/15/16 - FOMC (Barely) Keeps 2 Hikes for ’16, Trims GDP Outlook (F)
06/09/16 - Labor Market Still Healthy; Jobs to Trend Up Near +150K (L)
06/06/16 - Yellen on Weak May Jobs: Keep Calm and Carry On (Gradually) (F)
05/20/16 - New OT Rules Will Hurt Many, Put Drag on Economy (G,l)
05/18/16 - FOMC Majority Is Ready to Hike Rates Again in June (F)
05/13/16 - ACA Devouring Most Savings from Sequester, Low Rates (G)
05/11/16 - Low Diesel Prices Boost Truck Traffic, Drive Down Rail Volume (E)
05/06/16 - Affordable Care Act Falling Short on Most Fronts (G)
04/27/16 - FOMC Leaves Door Open for Rate Hike in June (F)
04/14/16 - Real GDP Stalled (Again) in 16Q1, But Rebound Underway (E)
04/08/16 - Fed Overestimates Labor Slack, Underestimates Need for Hikes(L,f)
03/25/16 - 2016: Year of FOMC Dissents (F)
03/22/16 - December vs. March: What Changed for the FOMC? (F,e)
03/16/16 - FOMC Eyes a More Dovish Course: Just 2 Rate Hikes in 2016 (F)
03/11/16 - Inventory Correction Should Be Essentially Done by Spring (E)
03/04/16 - February Slump in Wages, Hours Was Likely Exaggerated (L)
03/03/16 - Slump in Corporate Earnings Merits Little Concern (E)
02/17/16 - Real GDP Rebounding to +2.5% in 16Q1, Should Sustain Pace (E)
02/12/16 - U.S. Is Not Heading Into or Toward Recession (Most Likely) (E)
02/10/16 - Yellen Testimony Keeps Rate Hike Options Open (F)
02/05/16 - Core PCE Likely Understates the ‘True’ Inflation Trend (P,d)

In the parenthesis following each title listed, the capital letter (F, etc.) refers to the main topic; lower case letters (f,e, etc.), when they appear, refer to secondary themes.

Recent Analysis Data Reports Short Pieces About FMI

Last Modified: Tuesday, October 27, 2009 01:44 PM. Copyright 1998 Free Market, Inc. All rights reserved.