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About FMI
FMI produces frequent, one-page articles focusing on a range of economic and investment issues.
Past pieces (to 1994) are organized into 9 categories.
Key Short Piece Key Data Latest Forecast
Short Pieces:
Organizedby Category
Fed Policy (F)

Labor Market (L)

Consumer (C)

Economy/View (E)

Price Inflation (P)

International (I)

Government (G)

Theory (T)

Data Detail (D)

Recent Pieces Organized By Date:
Commentaries ...more
03/20/24 - Powell: Inflation Data Have Not Raised ‘Confidence’ Yet (F)
03/19/24 - Recent Data Weigh Against Rate Cuts Any Time Soon (F)
02/09/24 - Questions Fed Chair Powell Doesn’t Want to Answer (F)
01/31/24 - Fed: No Rate Cuts Until ‘Confident’ Inflation Falling (F)
01/29/24 - FOMC Likely to Be Far More Resolute vs. Inflation (F)
12/13/23 - Powell: Fed Funds Rate Now at or Near Its Peak (F)
12/12/23 - Data Have Not Changed Since Sept. But Fed Has? (F)
11/10/23 - Powell Keeps Speaking; Fed Futures Keep Covering Ears (F)
11/01/23 - FOMC Is Maintaining a Tightening Bias (F)
10/20/23 - Fed Resolve: No Pauses or Skips for Quantitative Tightening (F)
10/19/23 - Powell Cards Close to Vest; Rate Hike by Dec. Best Bet (F)
09/20/23 - Fed: 'Stronger Economy Means Do More on Rates' (F)
08/25/23 - Powell Speech Delivered a ‘Hole’ Lot of Hawkish Policy (F)
08/17/23 - Most FOMC Members Fear ‘Upside Risks’ to Inflation (F)
08/08/23 - Jobs Trend Healthy, Strikes Have Little Impact (L)
07/26/23 - FOMC Signals Further Rate Hike(s) Coming (F)
07/18/23 - Hollywood Strikes Will Hold Down July Payrolls (L)
06/14/23 - A Hawkish Skip: FOMC Sees Two More Hikes this Year (F)
05/19/23 - Debt Ceiling Drama Is Much Ado About Nothing (G)
05/12/23 - UI Claims Spike Caused by Massive Fraud in Massachusetts (L)
05/09/23 - BLS Jobs Data: They’re Real, and They’re Spectacular-ly OK (L)
05/03/23 - Powell Again Rules Out Any Rate Cuts in 2023 (F)
04/14/23 - FOMC Anticipates Some Negative Growth Ahead (F,e)
03/29/23 - Fed Chairman Says No Rate Cuts; He Should Know (F)
03/22/23 - Powell: A Few More Rate Hikes – No Cuts – this Year (F)
03/14/23 - FOMC Will (Should) Keep Hiking Rates Next Week (F)
03/13/23 - Rate Cuts (or Pause) Will Not Solve Banking Crisis (F,e)
03/07/23 - Powell Warns, Again, Rates ‘Higher than Expected’ (F)
02/22/23 - New FOMC Faces Cement Powell’s Control of Policy (F)
02/17/23 - No Recession; Expect High Funds Rate thru 2025 (F)
02/10/23 - ‘DisInflation’ Will Take Several Years, At Least (F)
02/01/23 - FOMC ‘Steps Down’ Pace But Promises More Tightening Ahead (F)
12/16/22 - Alternate Series Show Much Less Inflation Relief (P,f)
12/14/22 - FOMC Points to Another +75BP of Hikes Ahead (At Least) (F)
11/22/22 - Fed ‘Terminal Point’ Matters, Not the Path to Get There (F)
11/14/22 - Declaring Victory Over Inflation Is Wildly Premature (P,f)
11/02/22 - Powell: ‘Interest Rates Will Be Higher Than Earlier Estimates’ (F)
10/18/22 - The One Sure Midterm Election Outcome: Gridlock (G)
10/17/22 - Fed Policy Is Still Very Easy by Historical Standards (F)
09/21/22 - The FOMC By the Numbers
09/21/22 - Powell Pledges 'No Complacency' Against Inflation (F)
09/02/22 - Labor Day Brings Strong Jobs Market Outlook (L)
08/17/22 - FOMC Minutes Show Policymakers Still Mostly Clueless (F)
08/12/22 - ‘Inflation Reduction Act’ Will Surely Increase Inflation (G)
07/27/22 - Powell: Rate Hikes Will Continue Despite Slow Real Growth (F)
07/13/22 - Payroll Jobs Are Likely to Maintain Healthy Growth (L)
06/23/22 - Gas Tax Waivers, Tariff Cuts Will Do Nothing to Halt Inflation (G)
06/15/22 - ‘Dot Plot’ Points to 4% Funds Rate by End of 2023 (F)
05/20/22 - FOMC to Turn More Hawkish, Despite Biden Appointees (F)
05/04/22 - Fed: +50BP Hikes ‘On Table’ for Next Couple Meetings (F)
04/29/22 - FOMC Will Raise Rates +50BP in May and in June (F)
04/19/22 - Real GDP Set for Solid Gain in 22Q2, Deceleration Afterward (E)
04/11/22 - Like QE, Quantitative Tightening Will Have Little Macro Impact (F)
03/25/22 - 'Front-Loading" Will Be Just Beginning for Rate Hikes (F)
03/18/22 - Rate Hikes Will Exceed Current FOMC Projections (By a Lot) (F)
03/16/22 - FOMC Now Looks to Hike Rates at Each Meeting in 2022 (F)
02/28/22 - Nominal GDP Gap Shows Fed Has Uphill Fight vs. Inflation (F,p)
02/16/22 - Biden Fed Nominees Delayed Until after March FOMC (F)
02/02/22 - Uncertain January Employment Picture Muddled Further (L)
01/27/22 - Labor Market Recovery Varies Sharply by State (L)
01/26/22 - ‘Humble’ Powell to Normalize Policy Steadily (But Slowly) (F)
01/24/22 - Powell Will Stay the Course, Amid Equities Slump (F)
01/20/22 - Omicron Batters Early 2022, Sets Up Solid Spring Rebound (E)
01/13/22 - Powell Sets Policy; Biden Appointees to Have No Impact (F)
12/16/21 - All FOMC Members Now See Rate Hikes in 2022 (F)
11/29/21 - Smaller States Face More Severe Labor Shortages (L)
11/22/21 - UI Fraud Led to Millions of Fake Beneficiaries (L,g)
11/03/21 - Fed Starts to Taper Purchases, Finish in Mid-2022 (F)
10/22/21 - China-Based Supply Woes Will Outlast Pandemic (P)
10/20/21 - Not-So-Transient: High Inflation to Persist for Years (P)
10/15/21 - Real GDP Likely Under +4% in 21Q3, Rebounding to +5.5% in 21Q4 (E)
09/30/21 - Much Ado About Nothing: No Debt Ceiling Default, Shutdown (G)
09/22/21 - Half of FOMC (9 of 18 Members) Now Sees Rate Hikes in 2022 (F)
09/17/21 - 2022 Social Security COLA to Be Biggest in 40 Years (P)
08/31/21 - Alternates: Inflation Not So High (But Still Pretty Bad) (P)
08/24/21 - Odds Still Heavily Against a Second Fed Term for Powell (F)
08/13/21 - Delta Wave Is No Threat to Economy; Problem Solves Itself (E)
07/28/21 - Powell: ‘Progress’ toward Goals, But No Taper for Months (F)
07/23/21 - U.S. Vaccinations Rising Where Needed Most (E)
07/19/21 - 10-Year Yield Should Rebound to 2% by Year-End (E)
07/09/21 - Long Bond Yield Dip Is Noise, Not Reversal (E)
06/26/21 - Workers Will Return to Offices in Coming Months, Mostly (L)
06/16/21 - FOMC Majority (13 of 18) Now Sees Rate Hikes in 2023 (F)
06/14/21 - COVID ‘Third Wave’ Poses No Threat to U.S. Economy (E)
06/07/21 - Yellen’s Big Weekend Was Just Empty Posturing (G)
05/26/21 - Powell Is Unlikely to Be Renominated as Fed Chair (F)
05/17/21 - ‘Red’ State Cuts Will Slash UI Benefit Rolls by -2MM (G,l)
05/13/21 - Yes, Too-Generous UI Benefits Are Taking a Big Toll on Jobs (G,l)
04/28/21 - Fed Has Not Even Begun Thinking About Normalizing Policy (F)
04/20/21 - Biden Infrastructure Plan Crumbling Due to ‘Imprecision’ (E)
04/15/21 - Real GDP Likely Up +6% in 21Q1, +10% in 21Q2 (E)
03/22/21 - Powell vs. Powell: Contradictions in New Fed Approach (F)
03/17/21 - Powell: "No Hikes for Years (But Don’t Quote Me on That)" (F)
03/16/21 - A Tale of Two Fed Dashboards (F)
03/12/21 - Stimulus Goes Mostly to Those Who Will Not Spend Near-Term (G)
03/05/21 - February Jobs Were Even Stronger than They Appeared (L)
02/24/21 - Core Inflation Is Higher, More Worrisome than Fed Admits (P,f)
02/12/21 - Post-Virus, ‘New Normal’ Will Look Like… Old Normal (E)
02/10/21 - Fiscal Stimulus: Little Near-Term Benefit, Huge Medium-Term Costs (G,l)
02/05/21 - Workweek Hits Record-High as Firms Surf Second Wave (L)


In the parenthesis following each title listed, the capital letter (F, etc.) refers to the main topic; lower case letters (f,e, etc.), when they appear, refer to secondary themes.



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Last Modified: Tuesday, October 27, 2009 01:44 PM. Copyright © 1998 Free Market, Inc. All rights reserved.