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Recent Analysis

Data Reports

Short Pieces

About FMI
Titles below discuss data-related issues. If it is the main topic,
'D' will appear in the parenthesis. If it is a secondary theme, 'd' will appear.
Key Short Piece Key Data Latest Forecast
Data Detail (D)
2004     2003     2002     2001     2000     1999     1998     1997    1995-1996
Organized by Category
Fed Policy (F)

Labor Market (L)

Consumer (C)

Economy/View (E)

Price Inflation (P)

International (I)

Government (G)

Theory (T)

Data Detail (D)


05/11/17 - Soft & Hard Data Agree: Conditions OK, Likely to Get Better (E,d)
02/24/17 - New QSS Report Provides Advance Peak at Services Results (D)
2016
11/18/16 - U.S. Economy Does Have Labor Slack, But Not Much (L,d)
11/15/16 - ADP Jobs Model Gets Bragging Rights, For Now (D,l)
09/16/16 - PMI Is No Longer ‘A-List’ Data, But Still Relevant (D)
02/05/16 - Core PCE Likely Understates the ‘True’ Inflation Trend (P,d)
2015
05/22/15 - Healthy Jobs, Income Trends Belie Early 2015 Slowdown (E,d)
05/08/15 - Productivity Debates Have Little Productive Use (D,l)
05/06/15 - ‘Q1 Curse’ More than Fluke, But Does Not Change Upbeat Trend (D,e)
2014
03/14/14 - Re-Ranking the Crucial Economic Indicators (D)

2012
07/19/12 - Retail Slump Is Historically Mild, Not a Recession Signal (Yet) (C,d)
07/12/12 - Quest for 'True' Measures of Labor Market Slack (L,d)
06/06/12 - ‘Lost’ UI Claimants Reflect Better Economy, Not Budget Cuts (L,d)
05/04/12 - Labor Participation Drop Mostly Reflects Demographics (L,d)
04/13/12 - Truck Stall Should Not Jackknife Overall Expansion (D)
03/21/12 - By Any Measure, Inflation Is Near Fed’s +2% Target (P,d)
03/16/12 - The Week(s) in Review: Trends and Surprises (D)
03/15/12 - Overruling Okun's Law: Jobless Rate 'Gap' Is No Mystery (L,d)
01/25/12 - Consumer Saving Is Healthier than It First Appears (C,d)


2011
10/27/11 - FMI 100% Confident You Should Ignore Consumer Polls (C,d)

2010
01/15/10 - Jobless Rate to Remain Disturbingly High in 2010 AND 2011 (D,l)

2009
11/23/09 - Payroll Survey Tarnished, But Still 'Gold Standard' (L,D)
10/08/09 - Payroll Birth-Death Model Missed Badlyin 09Q1 (L,d)
05/29/09 - Productivity Points to Jobs Boost Early in Recovery (E, d)
05/14/09 - Debunking the Payroll Birth-Death Model Canard Again (D, l)
04/24/09 - Output Gap Calculations Face More than Potential Problems (D)
01/16/09 - Labor Markets Bad, But Not That Bad (L,d)


2008  
09/12/08 - Jobless Rate Exaggerated, But Labor Markets to Worsen Some  (L,d)
09/05/08 - 08Q2 GDP Inflation: Odd, But No Shenanigans (D)
08/21/08 - Payroll Jobs Volatility Has Declined as Data Improve (D,l
08/15/08 - Extended Benefits Likely Behind Recent UI Claims Surge (D)
07/29/08 - Soft Business Lending Reflects Demand & Supply Shift (E,d)
07/18/08 - Congress Passes Extended, But Invisible, UI Benefits (D,e)
07/09/08 - Paul Volcker, Call Your (Old) Office (D,f)
05/23/08 - Putting Payroll Revision Fears to BED, Again (D,l)
05/21/08 - Despite Good Core News, Inflation Likely to Worsen Ahead (P,d)
05/08/08 - BLS Birth-Death Model Does Track Business Cycles (D, l)
01/28/08 - Revamped PMI Still of Limited Use in Tracking GDP (D)

2007

12/20/07 - Poor Have Outpaced Rich & Everyone Else in Last Decade (D,e)
10/12/07 - Housing Job Losses Understated, But No Disaster Ahead (E,d)
07/25/07 - Dollar Decline to Have Modest Impact on Trade Deficit (E,d)
07/20/07 - Payroll Survey Is Doing the Job: Economy Is Okay (L,d)
05/22/07 - Payroll Data Appear Sound; No Sign of Major Benchmark (L,d)
04/16/07 - Housing Job Losses Likely Understated, Still No Major Threat (E, d)
04/10/07 - Weather Helped & Hurt Recent Data; Trend Remains Temperate (D, e)
04/06/07 - Leading Indicators Not a Reliable Sign of Weakness Ahead (D, e)

2006  
10/17/06 - Jobs Benchmark Is Far More Than Statistical Noise (E, d)
10/12/06 - Post-March ‘06 Jobs Growth Likely to Be Revised Up Too (L,d)
09/21/06 - ‘Trimmed’ Measures Show Weightier Inflation Problem (P,d)
08/18/06 - Plunge in Builders’ Index Exaggerates Housing Woes (E,d)
07/10/06 - Evolving Retail Channels Distort Consumption vs. Investment Mix (D,c)
04/07/06 - Labor Market Is As Tight As it Appears (L,d)
04/05/06 - ‘True’ Saving Rate Far Higher Than Official Data Indicate (D, c)

2005  
12/19/05 - Re-Gifting: Updating FMI’s Review of Holiday Sales Myths (D)
12/14/05 - Despite 05Q3 Surge, Productivity Is No Cure for Inflation (E,d)
11/21/05 - Housing Slowdown Poses No Major Threat to Jobs Growth (E,d)
11/15/05 - M3, RIP (D,f)
10/20/05 - Foreign Purchases Only Part of Answer to Bond Conundrum (D,f)
09/23/05 - Total Inflation, Not Core, Should Be the Main Focus Again (P, d)
08/23/05 - Fed Regional Indices Provide Reasonable Early Peek at PMI (D)
08/16/05 - Commodity Prices Rising, But Have Little Impact on Inflation (P,d)
07/18/05 - ‘New & Improved’ Leading Indicators Index Still Unreliable (D)
05/13/05 - Lull-A-Bye-Bye? Initial Real GDP to be Revised Up (Again) (E, d)
05/11/05 - Compensation Growing Much Faster than Payroll Wages (D, l)
04/19/05 - Place Little Confidence in Consumer, Regional Business Polls (D, c)
04/13/05 - Easy Fed Policy, Not Wages, Is Driving Inflation Higher (P,d)
03/28/05 - Fed’s Core Fallacies Understating Inflation Prospects (P,d)
03/15/05 - Jobs Report Contains Far More Than Payroll Differences  (D, l)
01/26/05 - PMI Now Much Less Reliable in Predicting Real GDP Growth (D)
01/12/05 - Revised Production Data Show Less Slack in Economy (E,d)

2004
07/13/04 - Strong Job Gains Should Continue Despite Soft June (L,d)
04/27/04 - After '03 Gap, Industrial Prod and GDP Goods Show Strong Gains (D,l)
04/13/04 - With NIPA Improvements, Current Profits ‘Truly’ Strong (E,d)
04/02/04 - UI-Based Revisions Show Much Stronger 03Q2-Q3 Income Gains (L,d)
03/19/04 - CBO Output Gap Data Show Only Modest Slack in Economy (E)
03/08/04 - ‘90s Bubble Inflated Payrolls; Recent Softness Is Partly Payback (L,d)


2003
12/18/03 - Bah, Humbug to Downbeat Christmas Sales Stories! (C,d)
09/26/03 - UI Claims Propped Up By Manufacturing Woes (D,e)
09/24/03 - Structural Shifts Delaying Job Growth, But Only For A Bit Longer  (E,d)
09/19/03 - Productivity Overstated; Work Week Likely To Be Revised Up (D)
08/20/03 - Blackout Likely To Have Modest Impact On Jobs Data (D)
08/14/03 - Strong Non-Mfg Index A Good, But Not Definitive, Sign (D)
07/25/03 - GDP Benchmark Likely To Yield Weaker '01-02 Growth (D)
06/05/03 - New Seas. Adj. Process Will Moderate Payroll Outliers (D,f)
04/09/03 - New Seasonal Adj. Process To Improve Payroll Series (D)
03/18/03 - ISM Mfg Index Less Reliable, New Orders More Volatile (D)
02/11/03 - Productivity Trend Respectable, But Not Miraculous  (E,d)
02/06/03 - Household Revisions To Employ ’00 Census, NAICS (D)
01/07/03 - Don’t Read Too Much Into December ISM Mfg Surge (D)


2002
08/19/02 - ISM Price Index Suggests Caution On Rate Cuts (D,f)
08/07/02 - GDP Revisions More In Line With How Economy Felt (E,d)
08/05/02 - ISM Index Changes Not Leading Recession Indicator (D,e)
07/10/02 - Equipment Spending: You've Got To Admit It's Getting Better (D,e)
06/13/02 - Smaller, More Dynamic Bias Adjustment After Revisions (D,l)
06/05/02 - Odds & Ends: Vehicle Sales, Stocks, Payroll Revisions (E,f,d)
05/09/02 - Short-Term Rise In Jobless Rate Due To Special Factor (D,l)
05/08/02 - Inventory/Sales Gap Still Wide, An Encouraging Sign (D,e)
05/03/02 - Confronting Greenspan's Final Sales Pessimism (D,e,f)
04/19/02 - Demystifying The Recent Surge In Claims (D,l)
04/11/02 - Service Consumption: Estimates Are Close To 'Truth' (D)
04/04/02 - Odds & Ends: March Jobs/Auto Sales, Middle East... (D,e)
04/03/02 - Service Consumption: Medical Care Rises In Importance (D,e)
03/20/02 - Service Sector Share Of U.S. Economy, Revisited (D,e)
03/19/02 - Is The U.S. An Increasingly Service-Oriented Economy? (D,e)
02/19/02 - Rapid Depreciation Of High-Tech Goods Aids Adjustment (E,d)
02/14/02 - Given Nominal Growth, Earnings Forecasts Too Optimistic (E,d,t)
02/08/02 - The "New Economy" Is Not Dead (E,d)
01/17/02 - Beware Of False Signals, Recession May Not Be Over (D,e)

2001
12/13/01 - High-Tech Excesses Not As Severe As Believed (D,e)
11/12/01 - Faltering Income Fundamentals Bode Ill For Consumer (C,l,d)
11/08/01 - FMI Says "Dream On" To Those Expecting Bull Market (E,d)
09/06/01 - Reexamining The August Rise In The Mfg PM (D,e)
08/15/01 - High Unit Labor Costs Should Not Worry The Fed (D,f)
08/10/01 - Late 1990s/Early 2000 Looks Less Miraculous (D)
07/17/01 - High-Tech Production "Down For The Count" (D,e)
07/11/01 - Real Reason(s) For Payroll/Household Job Difference (D,l)
06/26/01 - NIPA Profits More Representative Than S&P (D,e)
06/12/01 - Examining Retail & Inventory Data Conversion To NAICS (D)
05/24/01 - Major Durable Goods Revision Has Minimal Effect (D)
05/16/01 - Payroll Employment Redesign Continues (D,t)
05/14/01 - High-Tech Production Growth At 26 Year Low (D,e)
04/19/01 - High-Tech Sector Weaker Than It First Appears (D,e,f)
01/24/01 - January Data Improves After Distorted December (E,d)

2000
10/05/00 - Initial Sep Payroll Change Revised Up A Lot (D,t) 
07/06/00 - PM Down But Broader Non-Mfg PM Strong (E,d)
04/24/00 - Comparing The CPI To The Consumption Deflator (P,t,d)
02/17/00 - Income Inequality Is Not Income Inequity (C,d)
01/10/00 - Why Is Payroll Job Growth Stronger Than Household Growth? (L,t,d)

1999
11/04/99 - U.S. Economy Sailing Into A Temporary 'Dead Calm' (E,f,d)
09/23/99 - Benchmark GDP Revision Soon; New Treatment Of Software (D)
09/16/99 - Based On ES202, Current Wage Growth Likely 5+%, Not 4-% (P,l,d) 
08/20/99 - CPI Housing Gains Understated Some; Should Pick Up Near-Term (D,p)
06/18/99 - New Aggregate CPI Without Discontinuities Available (P,d)
04/16/99 - Import Price Not As Deflationary As They Had Been (D,p,e)
01/14/99 - Fed Introduces 6 New Dollar Indices: 3 Nominal, 3 Real (D)

1998
12/23/98 - BLS To Introduce Important Changes To CPI In 1999 (D,p)
12/11/98 - Interpreting Weekly Retail Sales Risky (D)
11/30/98 - Industrial Production & Capacity Revised Up A Bit (D,e)
11/18/98 - FMI View Of Fed Rate Cut; Saving Rate Revisited (F,c,d)
09/23/98 - Monitoring Asia's Impact On The U.S. Economy (I,e,d)
08/26/98 - Capital Gains Tax Payments Distorting Saving Rate (D,t,c)
08/26/98 - Broad Limitations Of Saving Rate Measures (D,t,c)
08/05/98 - Saving Rate Plunges, Mostly For Technical Reasons (C,d)
07/08/98 - NAPM Now Releasing Non-Mfg Survey Result; Non-Mfg Doing Much Better Than Manufacturing  (D,e)
07/07/98 - FMI & Fed Ask: Why Are Payroll Jobs Growing Faster Than Household?  (L,f,d)
05/27/98 - BLS Switching To Statistically Improved Workweek & Wage Series  (D)
03/25/98 - Impact Of Unusual Weather On Economic Data (D,l)
02/18/98 - Benchmark Will Have Little Effect On CPI Growth (D,p)

1997
12/12/97 - Available Capacity Revised Up Significantly (D,e)
12/02/97 - Late Thanksgiving Effect In 1997: Nov. Weak, Dec. Strong (D)
09/15/97 - The Anatomy Of Aug ’93 Payroll Job Revisions  (L,d)
08/19/97 - Census Addresses Understatement Of Exports  (D)
06/09/97 - Census’ New Sampling Methods To Eliminate Retail Sales Distortions  (D)
06/04/97 - FOMC Interim Bias As An Indicator Of Next Fed Rate Move  (F,d)
05/12/97 - Productivity's Compensation Cost Measure Superior To ECI  (L,d)
04/23/97 - Analysis Of Geometric-Mean CPI  (P,d,t)
04/22/97 - Technical Adjustments Continue To Improve CPI (D,p,t)
04/03/97 - Tax Law Changes Altered The Composition Of Household Debt (C,d)
03/24/97 - Cleveland Fed’s Median CPI Offers Alternative View Of Inflation (P,d)
02/11/97 - New Discontinuity In Household Jobs Series (D,l)
02/05/97 - Import Price Surges Often Hold Down GDP Deflator (P,d)

1995-1996
12/06/96 - CPI Overstates COLA But Less Than Boskin Commission Suggests (P,t,d)
12/04/96 - Flawed Establishment Survey To Be Redesigned (D,t)
12/03/96 - 96Q3 Statistical Discrepancy Suggests That GDP Is Being Understated (D,e)
11/19/96 - Late Thanksgiving Effect On Nov/Dec Retail Sales (D)
11/15/96 - NIPA Statistical Discrepancy Is Less Significant Than It Appears (E,d)
10/29/96 - Why The Household Job Data May Be Better Than The Payroll Data (D,l,t)
10/10/96 - Historical Analysis Of Payroll Job Changes (D,l,e)
08/22/96 - Commodity Prices Have Little Impact On Inflation (P,d)
07/18/96 - Delinquency Rate Fears Are Overblown (C,d)
06/20/96 - Using Retail Sales & Other Data In Estimating Consumption (D,c,t)
06/06/96 - Worldwide Population Shifts Will Alter U.S. Export Patterns (L,e,d)
05/29/96 - APICS Is Of Little Use (D)
05/10/96 - CRB Futures Influence NAPM Price Index, But Not Overall Inflation (D,p)
04/12/96 - Fed Policy Is Not Affected By Election Year Politics -- Tightening Does Occur Before (F,d)
04/10/96 - Temp Workers Affecting Labor Market Efficiency (L,t,d)
03/19/96 - Affect of Leap Year On February Retail Sales (D)
10/26/95 - Information On Upcoming GDP Benchmarks (D)
07/31/95 - Jobs Plentiful Surpasses Jobs Hard To Get For First Time Since 1987 (L,d)
07/21/95 - Using Reserve Data To Judge Monetary Policy Becoming Increasingly Difficult (F,d)
07/14/95 - Chain-Weight Real GDP Measure To Become Official In December (E,d)
03/13/95 - Service Wages, A Useful Signal of Inflation, Clearly Accelerating (P,d)
02/22/95 - Detailed Examination of U.S. Exports, By Country And End Use Categories (I,d)



Recent Analysis Data Reports Short Pieces About FMI

Last Modified: Thursday, October 08, 2009 01:38 PM. Copyright © 1998 Free Market, Inc. All rights reserved.