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Recent Analysis

Data Reports

Short Pieces

About FMI
Titles below discuss the consumer sector. If it is the main topic,
'C' will appear in the parenthesis. If it is a secondary theme, 'c' will appear.
Key Short Piece Key Data Latest Forecast
Consumer (C)
2004     2003     2002     2001     2000     1999     1998     1997    1995-1996
Organized by Category
Fed Policy (F)

Labor Market (L)

Consumer (C)

Economy/View (E)

Price Inflation (P)

International (I)

Government (G)

Theory (T)

Data Detail (D)


09/23/16 - Census Income Detail: Softer Wages, Rising S&L Gov't Pensions (C)
09/14/16 - Census Survey Wildly Overstates Household Income Gain (C)
03/03/16 - Slump in Corporate Earnings Merits Little Concern (E)

11/06/15 - ACA Boosting Health Care at Expense of Other Consumption (C,g)
10/26/15 - 'Scary’ Halloween Slump Does Not Imperil Holiday Outlook (C)
05/14/15 - ACA Subsidy Snafus Responsible for Part of 2015 Lull (C,g)

2014
04/25/14 - ACA Enrollment Will Plunge by Year-End (G,c)
04/21/14 - ACA Is Distorting Up Reported Consumption (C)

02/13/14 - ACA Cuts Labor Force, Jobs and Most Households’ Income (G,c)


2013
11/15/13 - ACA Shifts Spending to Healthcare from Other Goods (G,c)
05/14/13 - Wealth Gains Offset by Gov’t Debt Now, Fed Payback Later (C)
04/05/13 - After Early Spike, Consumption Should Trend Up in 2013 (E,c)

2012
08/17/12 - Pick-Up in Real DPI Should Ensure OK Consumption Gains (C)
07/19/12 - Retail Slump Is Historically Mild, Not a Recession Signal (Yet) (C,d)
04/26/12 - Real Services Trend, +1¼% in Recovery, Likely to Remain Soft (C)
01/25/12 - Consumer Saving Is Healthier than It First Appears (C,d)


2011
11/17/11 - Solid Consumption Suggests Income Will Be Revised Up (C)
10/27/11 - FMI 100% Confident You Should Ignore Consumer Polls (C,d)
08/17/11 - Despite Weak Economy, Consumers Managing Debt Better (C)


2009

09/11/09 - Consumption Growth to Pick Up Steadily -- 2010 to Be Decent (C)
04/17/09 - Consumption to Aid 09H2 Recovery, But Remain Subdued (C)

2008

12/17/08 - Spending, Dismal Near-Term, to Improve Some After Mid-2009 (C, e)
07/28/08 - Despite Mortgage Delinquencies, Consumers Holding Up OK So Far (C)
01/18/08 - Slowing Sales Taxes Say Little About Consumer Outlook(G, c)


2007

07/16/07 - Real Consumer Spending Should Recover After 07Q2 Lull (C,e)
02/15/07 - Positive Outlook Despite Negative Saving Rate (C)

2006

08/04/06 - Wage Income, Unit Labor Cost Trends Noticeably Higher  (C,p)
07/10/06 - Evolving Retail Channels Distort Consumption vs. Investment Mix (D,c)
04/05/06 - ‘True’ Saving Rate Far Higher Than Official Data Indicate (D, c)
02/09/06 - Housing Slowdown Likely to be Prolonged, But Not Too Severe (E,c)
01/13/06 - After 4th Quarter Slump, Consumers Look OK for 2006-H1 (E,c)

2005
12/08/05 - Overdue Inventory Build, Katrina Spending to Spur 05Q4 Real GDP (E,c)
10/07/05 - Housing Impact, Both Boom & ‘Bust’, Grossly Overestimated (E,c)
08/17/05 - Nominal Housing Prices Likely Facing Prolonged Stable Period (E,c)
04/19/05 - Place Little Confidence in Consumer, Regional Business Polls (D, c)
01/05/05 - Consumption Boom Likely to Continue through ’05, End in ’06 (C)

2004
07/20/04 - Bubble Alarmists Just Foaming at the Mouth (C)
03/18/04 - Consumers Not Overextended - Solid Spending Should Continue (C)
02/10/04 - Early ’04 Consumption to be Bolstered by Rising Income/Refunds (C)

2003
12/18/03 - Bah, Humbug to Downbeat Christmas Sales Stories! (C,d)
12/17/03 - Improving Income Trend Points to Solid 2004-05 Consumption (C)
01/27/03 - Income Inequality Is Not Inequity: 2003 (C)


2002
10/21/02 - Consumers Can Handle More Debt Due To Lower Rates (C)
08/16/02 - Stock Losses Not A Major Blow To Consumers (C)

2001
11/28/01 - High Median CPI Readings Not A Concern (P,c,e)
11/27/01 - Odds & Ends: Holiday Sales, Commodity Price Analysis (E,c)
11/12/01 - Faltering Income Fundamentals Bode Ill For Consumer (C,l,d)
10/02/01 - The Sky Is Not Falling! The Sky Is Not Falling! (E,c)
03/28/01 - Focus On Income When Analyzing Consumption (C)
03/28/01 - System Will Be Okay Without Fed Hand-Holding (E,c,f)
02/21/01 - Nervous Analysts Looking In All The Wrong Places (E,c,l)
02/06/01 - Confidence & Consumption Growth Often Unrelated (E,c)

2000
10/13/00 - Consumption, Income, & Wealth: Part II (C,e,t)
10/12/00 - Consumption, Income, & Wealth: Part I (C,e,t)
02/23/00 - Tax Returns Being Processed Faster: Refunds Up - Little Impact On Spending (C)
02/17/00 - Income Inequality Is Not Income Inequity (C,d)
02/11/00 - Spending To Be OK With Higher Rates & Weak Stocks (C)

1999
10/25/99 - Stocks To Continue To Have Little Impact On Spending (C,t)
04/23/99 - Improving Int'l Situation Bolstering U.S, Profits (E,i,c)
03/05/99 - IRS Update: Tax Credits Spur Higher Refunds; Big Tax Bills To Follow Later (C,g)
02/23/99 - Refunds Up Big, Aided By Tax Credits & E-Filings (C,g)
02/19/99 - Consumption Growth Will Be OK Even If The Market Corrects 10+% (C)

1998
11/18/98 - FMI View Of Fed Rate Cut; Saving Rate Revisited (F,c,d)
08/26/98 - Capital Gains Tax Payments Distorting Saving Rate (D,t,c)
08/26/98 - Broad Limitations Of Saving Rate Measures (D,t,c)
08/05/98 - Saving Rate Plunges, Mostly For Technical Reasons (C,d)
03/24/98 - Tax Refunds Provide Early Boost To  Spending  (C)
02/25/98 - Refunds Boost Spending; Payback Likely In Spring  (C)
02/05/98 - Vehicle Sales Solid In December & January (C)

1997
04/03/97 - Tax Changes Altered Composition Of Household Debt (C,d)
04/03/97 - IRS Tax Refunds Are Not Distorting Cons. Pattern  (C,g)
03/07/97 - Stock Market Strength’s Paradoxical Impact On Consumption  (C,t)

1995-1996
09/24/96 - Saving Rate Likely To Recover In The Near Future   (C)
07/18/96 - Delinquency Rate Fears Are Overblown  (C,d)
06/20/96 - Using Retail Sales & Other Data In Estimating Consumption  (D,c,t)
05/16/96 - Producers Upbeat On Near-Term Consumer Spending  (C)
04/23/96 - Loan Delinquencies Remain In Decent Shape  (C)
04/17/96 - Pace Of Tax Refunds Ahead Of Last Year, But Not Unusually Fast  (C,g)
03/22/96 - Analysis Of '96 Tax Refunds  (C,g)
02/09/96 - Are Inflated Stock Market Expectations Leading To Less Consumption?  (C,t)
02/06/96 - Mitsubishi-Schroder Revisions Show Weaker 1995 Sales --Not A Good Indication  (C)
11/28/95 - Consumers Are Still A Very Long Way From Serious Debt Problems  (C)
11/17/95 - Consumer Sector Sluggish, But Not A Disaster  (C)
09/20/95 - Consensus' Pessimistic Analysis Of Consumer Sector Is Incorrect  (C)
06/06/95 - IRS Issues Record Refunds  (C,g)
03/21/95 - Slow Payment of Tax Refunds To Take Off 1% From GDP Growth  (C,g)
01/26/95 - Durable Share of Goods Consumption Usually Falls Before A Slowdown (E,c)
01/13/95 - Debt Outstanding Near Record High; Solid Consumption Gains Continue (C)



Recent Analysis Data Reports Short Pieces About FMI

Last Modified: Friday, September 11, 2009 05:14 PM. Copyright 1998 Free Market, Inc. All rights reserved.