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10/16/20 - Real Consumption Likely Rose +40% in 20Q3 (E,c)
09/11/20 - Consumers Driving Recovery in Vehicle Sales (C,e)
08/24/20 - Real Consumption Gains to Continue as Saving Rate Stays Elevated (E,c)
2016
09/23/16 - Census Income Detail: Softer Wages, Rising S&L Gov't Pensions
09/14/16 -
Census Survey Wildly Overstates Household Income Gain
03/03/16 - Slump in Corporate Earnings Merits Little Concern (E)
01/27/16 - Placeholder FOMC Statement Leaves Options Open for March (E)
2015
11/06/15 - ACA Boosting Health Care at Expense of Other Consumption (C,g)
10/26/15 - 'Scary' Halloween Slump Does Not Imperil Holiday Outlook (C)
08/19/15 - Fed Minutes: Conditions for 1st Rate Hike "Approaching' (C)
05/14/15 - ACA Subsidy Snafus Responsible for Part of 2015 Lull (C,g)
2014
04/25/14 - ACA Enrollment Will Plunge by Year-End (G,c)
04/21/14 - ACA Is Distorting Up Reported Consumption (C)
02/13/14 - ACA Cuts Labor Force, Jobs and Most Households’ Income (G,c)
2013
11/15/13 - ACA Shifts Spending to Healthcare from Other Goods (G,c)
05/14/13 - Wealth Gains Offset by Gov’t Debt Now, Fed Payback Later (C)
04/05/13 - After Early Spike, Consumption Should Trend Up in 2013 (E,c)
2012
08/17/12 - Pick-Up in Real DPI Should Ensure OK Consumption Gains (C)
07/19/12 - Retail Slump Is Historically Mild, Not a Recession Signal (Yet) (C,d)
04/26/12 - Real Services Trend, +1¼% in Recovery, Likely to Remain Soft (C)
01/25/12 - Consumer Saving Is Healthier than It First Appears (C,d)
2011
11/17/11 - Solid Consumption Suggests Income Will Be Revised Up (C)
10/27/11 - FMI 100% Confident You Should Ignore Consumer Polls (C,d)
08/17/11 - Despite Weak Economy, Consumers Managing Debt Better (C)
2009
09/11/09 - Consumption Growth to Pick Up
Steadily -- 2010 to Be Decent (C)
04/17/09 - Consumption to Aid 09H2 Recovery, But Remain Subdued (C)
2008
12/17/08 - Spending, Dismal Near-Term, to Improve Some After Mid-2009 (C, e)
07/28/08 - Despite Mortgage Delinquencies,
Consumers Holding Up OK So Far (C)
01/18/08 - Slowing Sales Taxes Say Little
About Consumer Outlook(G, c)>
2007
07/16/07 - Real Consumer Spending Should
Recover After 07Q2 Lull (C,e)
02/15/07 - Positive Outlook Despite Negative
Saving Rate (C)
2006
08/04/06 - Wage Income, Unit Labor Cost
Trends Noticeably Higher (C,p)
07/10/06 - Evolving Retail Channels Distort
Consumption vs. Investment Mix (D,c)
04/05/06 - ‘True’ Saving Rate Far
Higher Than Official Data Indicate (D, c)
02/09/06 - Housing Slowdown Likely to be
Prolonged, But Not Too Severe (E,c)
01/13/06 - After 4th Quarter Slump,
Consumers Look OK for 2006-H1 (E,c)
2005
12/08/05 - Overdue Inventory Build, Katrina
Spending to Spur 05Q4 Real GDP (E,c)
10/07/05 - Housing Impact, Both Boom &
‘Bust’, Grossly Overestimated (E,c)
08/17/05 - Nominal Housing Prices Likely
Facing Prolonged Stable Period (E,c)
04/19/05 - Place Little Confidence in
Consumer, Regional Business Polls (D, c)
01/05/05 - Consumption Boom Likely to
Continue through ’05, End in ’06 (C)
2004
07/20/04 - Bubble Alarmists Just Foaming at
the Mouth (C)
03/18/04 - Consumers Not Overextended -
Solid Spending Should Continue (C)
02/10/04 - Early ’04 Consumption to be
Bolstered by Rising Income/Refunds (C)
2003
12/18/03 - Bah, Humbug to Downbeat Christmas
Sales Stories! (C,d)
12/17/03 - Improving Income Trend Points to
Solid 2004-05 Consumption (C)
01/27/03 - Income Inequality Is Not
Inequity: 2003 (C)
2002
10/21/02 - Consumers Can Handle More Debt
Due To Lower Rates (C)
08/16/02 - Stock Losses Not A
Major Blow To Consumers (C)
2001
11/28/01 - High
Median CPI Readings Not A Concern (P,c,e)
11/27/01 - Odds & Ends:
Holiday Sales, Commodity Price Analysis (E,c)
11/12/01 - Faltering Income
Fundamentals Bode Ill For Consumer (C,l,d)
10/02/01 - The Sky Is Not
Falling! The Sky Is Not Falling! (E,c)
03/28/01 - Focus On Income
When Analyzing Consumption (C)
03/28/01 - System Will Be Okay
Without Fed Hand-Holding (E,c,f)
02/21/01 - Nervous Analysts
Looking In All The Wrong Places (E,c,l)
02/06/01 - Confidence &
Consumption Growth Often Unrelated (E,c)
2000
10/13/00 - Consumption,
Income, & Wealth: Part II (C,e,t)
10/12/00 - Consumption,
Income, & Wealth: Part I (C,e,t)
02/23/00 - Tax Returns Being
Processed Faster: Refunds Up - Little Impact On Spending (C)
02/17/00 - Income Inequality
Is Not Income Inequity (C,d)
02/11/00 - Spending To Be OK
With Higher Rates & Weak Stocks (C)
1999
10/25/99 - Stocks To Continue
To Have Little Impact On Spending (C,t)
04/23/99 - Improving Int'l
Situation Bolstering U.S, Profits (E,i,c)
03/05/99 - IRS Update: Tax
Credits Spur Higher Refunds; Big Tax Bills To Follow Later (C,g)
02/23/99 - Refunds Up Big,
Aided By Tax Credits & E-Filings (C,g)
02/19/99 - Consumption Growth
Will Be OK Even If The Market Corrects 10+% (C)
1998
11/18/98 - FMI View Of Fed
Rate Cut; Saving Rate Revisited (F,c,d)
08/26/98 - Capital Gains Tax
Payments Distorting Saving Rate (D,t,c)
08/26/98 - Broad Limitations
Of Saving Rate Measures (D,t,c)
08/05/98 - Saving Rate
Plunges, Mostly For Technical Reasons (C,d)
03/24/98 - Tax Refunds
Provide Early Boost To Spending (C)
02/25/98 - Refunds Boost
Spending; Payback Likely In Spring (C)
02/05/98 - Vehicle Sales
Solid In December & January (C)
1997
04/03/97 - Tax Changes
Altered Composition Of Household Debt (C,d)
04/03/97 - IRS Tax Refunds
Are Not Distorting Cons. Pattern (C,g)
03/07/97 - Stock Market
Strength’s Paradoxical Impact On Consumption (C,t)
1995-1996
09/24/96 - Saving Rate
Likely To Recover In The Near Future (C)
07/18/96 - Delinquency Rate
Fears Are Overblown (C,d)
06/20/96 - Using Retail
Sales & Other Data In Estimating Consumption (D,c,t)
05/16/96 - Producers Upbeat
On Near-Term Consumer Spending (C)
04/23/96 - Loan
Delinquencies Remain In Decent Shape (C)
04/17/96 - Pace Of Tax
Refunds Ahead Of Last Year, But Not Unusually Fast (C,g)
03/22/96 - Analysis Of '96
Tax Refunds (C,g)
02/09/96 - Are Inflated
Stock Market Expectations Leading To Less Consumption? (C,t)
02/06/96 - Mitsubishi-Schroder
Revisions Show Weaker 1995 Sales --Not A Good Indication (C)
11/28/95 - Consumers Are
Still A Very Long Way From Serious Debt Problems (C)
11/17/95 - Consumer Sector
Sluggish, But Not A Disaster (C)
09/20/95 - Consensus'
Pessimistic Analysis Of Consumer Sector Is Incorrect (C)
06/06/95 - IRS Issues
Record Refunds (C,g)
03/21/95 - Slow Payment of
Tax Refunds To Take Off 1% From GDP Growth (C,g)
01/26/95 - Durable Share of
Goods Consumption Usually Falls Before A Slowdown (E,c)
01/13/95 - Debt Outstanding
Near Record High; Solid Consumption Gains Continue (C) |
