04/14/23 - FOMC Anticipates Some Negative Growth Ahead (F,e)
03/13/23 - Rate Cuts (or Pause) Will Not Solve Banking Crisis (F,e)
04/19/22 - Real GDP Set for Solid Gain in 22Q2, Deceleration Afterward (E)
01/20/22 - Omicron Batters Early 2022, Sets Up Solid Spring Rebound (E)
2021
10/15/21 - Real GDP Likely Under +4% in 21Q3, Rebounding to +5.5% in 21Q4 (E)
08/13/21 - Delta Wave Is No Threat to Economy; Problem Solves Itself (E)
07/23/21 - U.S. Vaccinations Rising Where Needed Most (E)
07/19/21 - 10-Year Yield Should Rebound to 2% by Year-End (E)
07/09/21 - Long Bond Yield Dip Is Noise, Not Reversal (E)
06/14/21 - COVID ‘Third Wave’ Poses No Threat to U.S. Economy (E)
04/20/21 - Biden Infrastructure Plan Crumbling Due to ‘Imprecision’ (E)
04/15/21 - Real GDP Likely Up +6% in 21Q1, +10% in 21Q2 (E)
02/12/21 - Post-Virus, ‘New Normal’ Will Look Like… Old Normal (E)
01/25/21 - Real GDP Likely Rose +4% in 20Q4, Positive Trend in 21Q1 (E)
2020
12/18/20 - The Good News about Covid-19 (E)
11/25/20 - ‘Second Wave’ Should Not Derail the Economic Recovery (E)
11/13/20 - U.S. Economic Recovery Defies Rising COVID-19 Cases (E)
10/16/20 - Real Consumption Likely Rose +40% in 20Q3 (E,c)
10/02/20 - Trump COVID-19 Diagnosis Should Not Affect Economy (E)
09/11/20 - Consumers Driving Recovery in Vehicle Sales (C,e)
08/24/20 - Real Consumption Gains to Continue as Saving Rate Stays Elevated (E,c)
08/17/20 - By the Numbers: Outlook Is Brightening
07/17/20 - Economy Still Headed for Robust Rebound in Summer (E)
07/13/20 - Re-Opening to Continue; Strong 20Q3 GDP Rebound (E)
06/12/20 - FOMC Expects Sluggish Recovery; FMI Disagrees (F,e)
05/20/20 - A V-Shaped Recovery, For Some Sectors (E)
05/10/20 - 2021: A COVID-19 Odyssey
04/21/20 - COVID-19 Fiscal Stimulus Is Timely, Well-Targeted (G,e)
04/17/20 - Trump 6-Week PlanShould Deliver in 8-10 Weeks (G,e)
04/13/20 - COVID-19: A Roller-Coaster Economic Recovery (E,g)
04/06/20 - March 'True Jobless Rate 7%, April Could be 25% (L,e)
03/25/20 - Can America ‘Re-Open’ for Business by Easter? Yes and No (E,g)
03/23/20 - Unemployment Should Spike Above 25% for April (L,e)
03/19/20 - Fiscal Stimulus Will Help Set Up Economy for Rebound (G,e)
03/17/20 - Retail Sales Decline Will Be Staggering But Temporary (E)
03/15/20 - Key Takeaways from the State of Emergency (E)
03/06/20 - U.S. Relatively Immune to COVID-19 Economic Drag (F,e)
02/27/20 - ‘Insurance’ Rate Cuts Would Do Little Against COVID-19 (F,e)
02/23/20 - A Coronavirus Check-Up for the U.S. Economy (E)
01/21/20 - Real GDP Likely Posted Respectable +2.3% Gain in 19Q4 (E)
2019
04/22/19 - Real GDP Likely Posted Solid +2.75% Growth in 19Q1 (E)
02/14/19 - Real GDP Likely Grew Just +2% in 18Q4 (E)
2018
12/19/18 - Economic Anxiety May Be Up, But Data Remain Upbeat (F,g)
10/25/18 - Even at Full Employment, Expansion Has a Good Ways to Go (E,d)
10/19/18 - Real GDP Likely Grew +3.2% in 18Q3 (E)
10/18/18 - Hurricane Michael Should Have Little Impact on October Payrolls (E)
09/20/18 - Florence Will Not Sway Economic Outlook or Fed Policy (E,f)
08/17/18 - The Yield Curve: It Really Is Different This Time(E,d)
08/07/18 - Home Price Appreciation Will Moderate, But Not Yet (E,d)
07/18/18 - Real GDP Likely Up +4½% in 18Q2, Best in Four Years (E)
07/09/18 - Supplier Bottlenecks Reflect Strong Growth, Not Trade Panic (E,i)
05/16/18 - Surging U.S. Oil Output Will Blunt Impact of Higher Prices (E)
04/16/18 - Salvaged by Inventory, 18Q1 Real GDP Likely Grew +2.25% (E)
03/07/18 - Trump Tariffs Pose Little Threat to U.S. Economy (I.e)
02/09/18 - Correction, Even an Equity ‘Crash,’ Won’t Threaten Economy (E)
01/12/18 - Expect +3% Real GDP in 17Q4,Pace to Be Sustained thru 2018-H2 (E)

2017
10/20/17 - Real GDP Growth Likely Exceeded +3% in 17Q3 (E)
09/12/17 - Hurricanes Won't Sway Fed Policy or the Macro Outlook (F,e)
08/28/17 - Harvey Should Have Only Modest Macro Impact (E)
05/11/17 - Soft & Hard Data Agree: Conditions OK, Likely to Get Better (E,d)
04/25/17 - After Q1 Lull, Real GDP to Surge Near +4% in 17Q2 (E)
04/07/17 - Vehicles Sales on Cruise Control, Likely 17+ mm in 2017 (E)
03/24/17 - Solid Housing/Income Fundamentals to Offset Rising Rates (E)
03/13/17 - 10-Year Bond Yield to Keep Trending Up, 4% by late 2018 (E,f)
02/10/17 - Trump Starts Out with Good Economy (But Bad for Him) (G,e)

2016
10/19/16 - Real GDP Rebounded Nicely in 16Q3, Respectable Trend Ahead (E)
07/21/16 - At Last, Inventory Correction Complete; Stocks Neutral Ahead (E)
05/11/16 - Low Diesel Prices Boost Truck Traffic, Drive Down Rail Volume (E)
05/06/16 - Affordable Care Act Falling Short on Most Fronts (G)
04/14/16 - Real GDP Stalled (Again) in 16Q1, But Rebound Underway (E)
03/16/16 - December vs. March: What Changed for the FOMC? (F,e)
03/11/16 - Inventory Correction Should Be Essentially Done by Spring (E)
02/17/16 - Real GDP Rebounding to +2.5% in 16Q1, Should Sustain that Pace (E)
02/12/16 - U.S. Is Not Heading Into or Toward Recession (Most Likely) (E)
01/27/16 - As in 1987 Crash, Stock Drop Won’t Impede Macro Economy (E,f)
01/18/16 - Prospects for U.S. Economy, Rate Hikes Still Good for 2016 (E,f)

2015
12/11/15 - The 'New Normal' vs. Plain Old Normal (E)
12/04/15 - Despite Yellen’s ‘Gradual’ Pledge, Data Will Determine Policyr (F,e)
10/21/15 - Inventory Correction Held Real GDP to +1¼% in 15Q3 (E)
07/24/15 - Real GDP on Track for Near +3% Trend in 2015-H2 (E)
06/26/15 - Housing Sector to Be a Good Driver for GDP Ahead (E)
05/22/15 - Healthy Jobs, Income Trends Belie Early 2015 Slowdown (E,d)
05/06/15 - ‘Q1 Curse’ More than Fluke, But Does Not Change Upbeat Trend (D,e)
03/12/15 - After Soft 15Q1, Real GDP Trend to Rebound to +3% (E)
01/28/15 - ‘Hot Streak’ Continues:+3% GDP in 14Q4 & Beyond (E)
01/21/15 - Slower Household Formation Driven by Demographics (E)

2014
11/07/14 - Falling Oil Prices to Grease Real Consumption Near-Term (E)
10/23/14 - Dollar Rally to Have Only Modest Impact on US Inflation, Trade (E,i)
10/15/14 - Ebola Crisis Should Have Modest Economic Impact on US (E)
07/25/14 - Real GDP Likely Grew Near +3% in 14Q2,+3.5% in 14H2 (E)
05/20/14 - Multi-Family Tilt No Threat to Housing Sector or Economy (E)
05/09/14 - Next Stage: Better Real Growth, Tougher Calls for Fed (E)
01/28/14 - Arctic January Likely to Nip 14Q1 GDP, Payback in Spring (E)

2013
10/22/13 - Real Growth +2¼% in 13Q4, Rebound to +3% in 14Q1 (E,g)
07/26/13 - Unlike Past Swoons, Real GDP Should Rebound in 2nd Half (E,g)
05/21/13 - State-Level Performance Varies Sharply in This Cycle (E)
05/07/13 - Profit Margins Will Continue to Decline from Record Levels (E)
04/05/13 - After Early Spike, Consumption Should Trend Up in 2013 (E,c)
01/25/13 - Inventory, Government Payback Slowed 12Q4 Real Growth (E)

2012
11/02/12 - Sandy: Little Net Effect on 12Q4, Some Boost to 13Q1 GDP (E)
10/17/12 - Capitol Uncertainty Is Behind Slowdown in Capital Orders (E)
10/16/12 - Inventories a Big Plus in 12Q3; Final Sales Anemic (E)
09/06/12 - Small Biz Loan Slump Due to Lack of Demand, Not Supply (E,f)
06/15/12 - Multiple Uncertainties Likely to Limit Growth Near-Term (E)
06/08/12 - Fed Rhetoric Getting More Panicky, But Data Still Not Bad (E, f)
05/11/12 - Housing Excesses Corrected; Prices Below Long-Term Trend (E)
05/04/12 - Three Years & Counting: Moderate Expansion Should Continue (E,f)
02/14/12 - Loan, Money Demand Are Returning to ‘Normal’ (E)
02/03/12 - Moderate Growth Continuing, But Upside Risks Growing (E)

2011
11/04/11 - U.S. Likely to Maintain Moderate Real Growth thru 2012 (E)
11/02/11 - FOMC Cuts Real Growth Forecast by -0.8% for 2012 & 2013 (F,e)
10/14/11 - US Economy Not That Bad, Pace to Pick Up Gradually (E)
10/07/11 - Fear Is Biggest Threat to Recovery; That Too Shall Pass (E)
09/26/11 - Bet against US Recession; Serious Downturn Improbable (E)
08/08/11 - 2011-H2 Growth Weaker; Expect Pick Up to +2.5% in 2012 (E)
08/04/11 - U.S. Real Growth to Pick Up Gradually in 2011-H2 (E)
07/22/11 - After +2% Gain in 11Q2, Real GDP Will Pick Up Moderately (E)
06/08/11 - Vehicle Output to Surge, Boosting GDP this Summer (E)
06/03/11 - U.S. Real Growth to Pick Up after Soft +2% Gain in 11Q2 (E)
05/23/11 - Soft Data & Special Factors: These Too Shall Pass (E)
05/13/11 - Resource Slack Shrinking as Argument Against Rate Hike (F,e)
05/10/11 - Vehicles a Big Negative Factor for 11Q2 GDP, UI Claims (E)
04/15/11 - Real GDP Likely Rose +2½% in 11Q1; Better Gains in 11H (E)
04/01/11 - U.S. Should Sustain +3% Real Growth into 2012 (E)
02/04/11 - U.S. Should Sustain Moderate +3% or So Growth into 2012 (E)
01/19/11 - Final Sales Zoomed +5% in 10Q4, Driven by Solid Consumer (E)

2010
12/03/10 - U.S. Should Maintain Moderate +2½-3% Growth into 2012 (E)
11/05/10 - Recovery Monitor: Real Growth Picking Up Slowly (E)
10/20/10 - Inventories Boosted 10Q3, Likely a Drag for Next Two Quarters (E)
10/08/10 - Mediocre Macro Maintained - Double Dip Doubtful (E)
09/22/10 - Home Prices Have Likely Troughed, Modest Gains Ahead (E)
09/07/10 - A Lull, Not an End - Double Dip Remains Very Unlikely (E)
08/08/10 - Recovery Stabilizing, Not Stalling -- No Double Dip (E)
07/20/10 - Lending ‘Crunch’ Not Behind Sluggish Small Biz Hiring (E,g)
07/02/10 - Recovery Monitor: Decelerating But Nothing Close to a Double Dip (E)
06/04/10 - FMI Recovery Monitor: Solid Growth Likely thru 2010 (E)
05/21/10 - EU Criisis Should Have Only Modest Impact on US (E,i)
05/07/10 - Not a 'V' But OK -- Solid Growth Likely Through 2010 (E)
04/23/10 - Gold Sachs Charges: More Kerfuffle than Crisis (E)
04/06/10 - FMI Recovery Monitor: Jobs Pace Picking Up (E)
03/05/10 - Recovery Monitor: Jobs to Pick Up Soon (E)
02/05/10 - Current Expansion Not as Atypical as It Seems (E)
01/20/10 - Inventories to Lead a +6% Real GDP Spike in 09Q4 (E)

2009
12/10/09 - Inventories an Even Bigger Positive for 09Q4 (E)
10/27/09 - Home Prices Are At/Near Bottom, Should Rise Some in 2010 (E,g)
10/20/09 - Flash Forward: Recovery Solid, But Tax Theat Looming (E,g)
09/17/09 - Recovery Well Underway, Should Be Sustained thru 2010 (E)
07/16/09 - Real GDP Likely Fell Just -1% in 09Q2 Despite Weak Hours (E)
07/15/09 - FOMC Projects Extended High Unemployment Rates (F,e)
06/19/09 - Needed Rebound in Vehicle Production to Provide Big Boost (E)
06/16/09 - Inventories to Batter 09Q2, Could Lead to Surge in 09H2 (E)
05/29/09 - Productivity Points to Jobs Boost Early in Recovery (E, d)
05/20/09 - Fed Now Sees Recovery Beginning Later in 2009-H2 (E)
05/12/09 - Despite Chrysler/GM Woes, Vehicles to Be a Big Plus for 09Q2 (E)
04/17/09 - Inventory Correction Well Underway; Recovery after Mid-09 (E)
04/08/09 - Inventory Cycle Should Add to Mild Recovery After Mid-09 (E)
03/25/09 - Geithner & His PPIPs May Be a One-Hit Wonder (E)
03/11/09 - Recovery Likely to Begin Mid-Year, But Should Be Subpar (E)
03/04/09 - Home Prices Likely to Fall -20% in 2009, Stabilize in 2010 (E)
02/18/09 - FOMC Lowers Near & Long-Term Real Growth Views (E, f)
02/10/09 - Bad Yes, But Not Anything Like Great Depression (E)
01/27/09 - A Massive Stimulus, For 2010; Geithner's Follies (E,g)
01/21/09 - Sizeable Inventory Correction to Hammer 09Q1 Results (E)
01/20/09 - Worst Recession Since WWII; Recovery to Be Subpar (E)

2008
12/17/08 - Spending, Dismal Near-Term, to Improve Some After Mid-2009 (C, e)
11/24/08 - Deleveraging Will Be Substantial, But Not Cataclysmic (E)
11/19/08 - FOMC Expects Recession/Weak Growth Through 2009 (F,e)
11/07/08 - History Says Credit Thaw Will Give Quick Economic Boost (E)
10/22/08 - 'More Terrible Data Ahead, Focus on UI Claims (E)
10/17/08 - 'V' Pattern Emerging: Big Decline in 08Q4, Solid Rebound in Mid-09 (E)
10/15/08 - No Great Depression, But Not Like '87 Crash Either (E)
07/29/08 - Soft Business Lending Reflects Demand & Supply Shift (E,d)
07/15/08 - Oil, Fannie Mae May Delay, But Not Stop, Fed Tightening (F,e)
06/23/08 - Fed Less Fearful of Late '08 Recession (F,e)
05/21/08 - FOMC Minutes: Rate Cuts Over, Forecast Implies Hikes (F,e)
04/15/08 - Economy Not Doing That Badly, But Long-Term Outlook Drab (E)
03/20/08 - Housing Activity to Trough by Summer; Jobs Prices by 2009 (E)
03/07/08 - FMI Sees Real GDP Growth as Low as 0% for 08Q1-Q3 (E)
02/27/08 - Little Fiscal Boost Until 08Q3, After Worst Has Passed (G, e)
02/19/08 - Outside Financial Sector, Economy Functioning Surprisingly Well (E)
02/12/08 - Claims, Household Jobs Show No Cycle Turning Point (Yet)  (L,e)
02/11/08 - 08H2 Rebound as Drag from Oil, Credit, Housing Recedes (E)
01/11/08 - Housing to Exert Only Moderate Drag on 2008 Economy (E)

2007
12/20/07 - Poor Have Outpaced Rich & Everyone Else in Last Decade (D,e)
11/13/07 - Massive Subprime Writedowns Set Stage for Healthier System (E)
11/08/07 - Downside Risks Rising, Negative Growth Possible 07Q4 (E, f)
10/22/07 - Exports Helping Economy Through Soft Patch (E, i)
10/16/07 - 07Q3 Real GDP Up +3.5%; Moderate Soft Patch Coming (E)
10/12/07 - Housing Job Losses Understated, But No Disaster Ahead (E,d)
10/04/07 - Economy Looks to Be Firming; Odds for Rate Cuts Receding (E,f)
09/12/07 - Real Home Prices Face Prolonged Drop, Spending Impact Modest (E)
07/25/07 - Dollar Decline to Have Modest Impact on Trade Deficit (E,d)
07/16/07 - Real Consumer Spending Should Recover After 07Q2 Lull (C,e)
07/13/07 - Starkly Higher Inflation Overshadows Real GDP Rebound (E)
05/09/07 - Surge in Real GDP a Growing Possibility for 07H2 (E)
05/04/07 - Foreign Demand Driving Civilian Aircraft Business (E)
04/19/07 - Illegal Immigration Is Not Concealing Housing Job Losses (E)
04/19/07 - Inventory Correction Dampened 07Q1GDP, Now Nearly Done (E)
04/16/07 - Housing Job Losses Likely Understated, Still No Major Threat (E, d)
04/10/07 - Weather Helped & Hurt Recent Data; Trend Remains Temperate (D, e)
04/06/07 - Leading Indicators Not a Reliable Sign of Weakness Ahead (D, e)
03/16/07 - Subprime Mortgage Impact Negative, But Exaggerated (E)
02/23/07 - Housing Inflation Should Show Little Relief in '07 (E)
0/208/07 - Ex-Vehicle Inventories Still Need Correction in 07Q1 (E)
01/26/07 - Subprime Mortgage Woes Pose No Major Economic Threat (E)
01/05/07 - Vehicle Distortions to Cut GDP, Won't Put Fed in Reverse (E, f)