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Titles below discuss the economy and/or the outlook.   If it is the main topic,
 'E' will appear in the parenthesis.  If it is a secondary theme, 'e' will appear.
Key Short Piece Key Data Latest Forecast
Economy/View (E)
2004     2003     2002     2001     2000     1999     1998     1997    1995-1996
Organized by Category
Fed Policy (F)

Labor Market (L)

Consumer (C)

Economy/View (E)

Price Inflation (P)

International (I)

Government (G)

Theory (T)

Data Detail (D)


09/12/17 - Hurricanes Won't Sway Fed Policy or the Macro Outlook (F,e)
08/28/17 - Harvey Should Have Only Modest Macro Impact (E)
05/11/17 - Soft & Hard Data Agree: Conditions OK, Likely to Get Better (E,d)
04/25/17 - After Q1 Lull, Real GDP to Surge Near +4% in 17Q2 (E)
04/07/17 - Vehicles Sales on Cruise Control, Likely 17+ mm in 2017 (E)
03/24/17 - Solid Housing/Income Fundamentals to Offset Rising Rates (E)
03/13/17 - 10-Year Bond Yield to Keep Trending Up, 4% by late 2018 (E,f)
02/10/17 - Trump Starts Out with Good Economy (But Bad for Him) (G,e)
2016
10/19/16 - Real GDP Rebounded Nicely in 16Q3, Respectable Trend Ahead (E)
07/21/16 - At Last, Inventory Correction Complete; Stocks Neutral Ahead (E)
05/11/16 - Low Diesel Prices Boost Truck Traffic, Drive Down Rail Volume (E)
05/06/16 - Affordable Care Act Falling Short on Most Fronts (G)
04/14/16 - Real GDP Stalled (Again) in 16Q1, But Rebound Underway (E)
03/16/16 - December vs. March: What Changed for the FOMC? (F,e)
03/11/16 - Inventory Correction Should Be Essentially Done by Spring (E)
02/17/16 - Real GDP Rebounding to +2.5% in 16Q1, Should Sustain that Pace (E)
02/17/16 - Real GDP Rebounding to +2.5% in 16Q1, Should Sustain that Pace (E)
02/12/16 - U.S. Is Not Heading Into or Toward Recession (Most Likely) (E)
01/27/16 - As in 1987 Crash, Stock Drop Won’t Impede Macro Economy (E,f)
01/18/16 - Prospects for U.S. Economy, Rate Hikes Still Good for 2016 (E,f)
2015
12/11/15 - The 'New Normal' vs. Plain Old Normal (E)
12/04/15 - Despite Yellen’s ‘Gradual’ Pledge, Data Will Determine Policyr (F,e)
10/21/15 - Inventory Correction Held Real GDP to +1¼% in 15Q3 (E)
07/24/15 - Real GDP on Track for Near +3% Trend in 2015-H2 (E)
06/26/15 - Housing Sector to Be a Good Driver for GDP Ahead (E)
05/22/15 - Healthy Jobs, Income Trends Belie Early 2015 Slowdown (E,d)
05/06/15 - ‘Q1 Curse’ More than Fluke, But Does Not Change Upbeat Trend (D,e)
03/12/15 - After Soft 15Q1, Real GDP Trend to Rebound to +3% (E)
01/28/15 - ‘Hot Streak’ Continues:+3% GDP in 14Q4 & Beyond (E)
01/21/15 - Slower Household Formation Driven by Demographics (E)
2014
11/07/14 - Falling Oil Prices to Grease Real Consumption Near-Term (E)
10/23/14 - Dollar Rally to Have Only Modest Impact on US Inflation, Trade (E,i)
10/15/14 - Ebola Crisis Should Have Modest Economic Impact on US (E)
07/25/14 - Real GDP Likely Grew Near +3% in 14Q2,+3.5% in 14H2 (E)
05/20/14 - Multi-Family Tilt No Threat to Housing Sector or Economy (E)
05/09/14 - Next Stage: Better Real Growth, Tougher Calls for Fed (E)
01/28/14 - Arctic January Likely to Nip 14Q1 GDP, Payback in Spring (E)
2013
10/22/13 - Real Growth +2¼% in 13Q4, Rebound to +3% in 14Q1 (E,g)
07/26/13 - Unlike Past Swoons, Real GDP Should Rebound in 2nd Half (E,g)
05/21/13 - State-Level Performance Varies Sharply in This Cycle (E)
05/07/13 - Profit Margins Will Continue to Decline from Record Levels (E)
04/05/13 - After Early Spike, Consumption Should Trend Up in 2013 (E,c)
01/25/13 - Inventory, Government Payback Slowed 12Q4 Real Growth (E)

2012
11/02/12 - Sandy: Little Net Effect on 12Q4, Some Boost to 13Q1 GDP (E)
10/17/12 - Capitol Uncertainty Is Behind Slowdown in Capital Orders (E)
10/16/12 - Inventories a Big Plus in 12Q3; Final Sales Anemic (E)
09/06/12 - Small Biz Loan Slump Due to Lack of Demand, Not Supply (E,f)
06/15/12 - Multiple Uncertainties Likely to Limit Growth Near-Term (E)
06/08/12 - Fed Rhetoric Getting More Panicky, But Data Still Not Bad (E, f)
05/11/12 - Housing Excesses Corrected; Prices Below Long-Term Trend (E)
05/04/12 - Three Years & Counting: Moderate Expansion Should Continue (E,f)
02/14/12 - Loan, Money Demand Are Returning to ‘Normal’ (E)
02/03/12 - Moderate Growth Continuing, But Upside Risks Growing (E)


2011

11/04/11 - U.S. Likely to Maintain Moderate Real Growth thru 2012 (E)
11/02/11 - FOMC Cuts Real Growth Forecast by -0.8% for 2012 & 2013 (F,e)
10/14/11 - US Economy Not That Bad, Pace to Pick Up Gradually (E)
10/07/11 - Fear Is Biggest Threat to Recovery; That Too Shall Pass (E)
09/26/11 - Bet against US Recession; Serious Downturn Improbable (E)
08/08/11 - 2011-H2 Growth Weaker; Expect Pick Up to +2.5% in 2012 (E)
08/04/11 - U.S. Real Growth to Pick Up Gradually in 2011-H2 (E)
07/22/11 - After +2% Gain in 11Q2, Real GDP Will Pick Up Moderately (E)
06/08/11 - Vehicle Output to Surge, Boosting GDP this Summer (E)
06/03/11 - U.S. Real Growth to Pick Up after Soft +2% Gain in 11Q2 (E)
05/23/11 - Soft Data & Special Factors: These Too Shall Pass (E)
05/13/11 - Resource Slack Shrinking as Argument Against Rate Hike (F,e)
05/10/11 - Vehicles a Big Negative Factor for 11Q2 GDP, UI Claims (E)
04/15/11 - Real GDP Likely Rose +2½% in 11Q1; Better Gains in 11H (E)
04/01/11 - U.S. Should Sustain +3% Real Growth into 2012 (E)
02/04/11 - U.S. Should Sustain Moderate +3% or So Growth into 2012 (E)
01/19/11 - Final Sales Zoomed +5% in 10Q4, Driven by Solid Consumer (E)
2010
12/03/10 - U.S. Should Maintain Moderate +2½-3% Growth into 2012 (E)
11/05/10 - Recovery Monitor: Real Growth Picking Up Slowly (E)
10/20/10 - Inventories Boosted 10Q3, Likely a Drag for Next Two Quarters (E)
10/08/10 - Mediocre Macro Maintained - Double Dip Doubtful (E)
09/22/10 - Home Prices Have Likely Troughed, Modest Gains Ahead (E)
09/07/10 - A Lull, Not an End - Double Dip Remains Very Unlikely (E)
08/08/10 - Recovery Stabilizing, Not Stalling -- No Double Dip (E)
07/20/10 - Lending ‘Crunch’ Not Behind Sluggish Small Biz Hiring (E,g)
07/02/10 - Recovery Monitor: Decelerating But Nothing Close to a Double Dip (E)
06/04/10 - FMI Recovery Monitor: Solid Growth Likely thru 2010 (E)
05/21/10 - EU Criisis Should Have Only Modest Impact on US (E,i)
05/07/10 - Not a 'V' But OK -- Solid Growth Likely Through 2010 (E)
04/23/10 - Gold Sachs Charges: More Kerfuffle than Crisis (E)
04/06/10 - FMI Recovery Monitor: Jobs Pace Picking Up (E)
03/05/10 - Recovery Monitor: Jobs to Pick Up Soon (E)
02/05/10 - Current Expansion Not as Atypical as It Seems (E)
01/20/10 - Inventories to Lead a +6% Real GDP Spike in 09Q4 (E)

2009
12/10/09 - Inventories an Even Bigger Positive for 09Q4 (E)
10/27/09 - Home Prices Are At/Near Bottom, Should Rise Some in 2010 (E,g)
10/20/09 - Flash Forward: Recovery Solid, But Tax Theat Looming (E,g)
09/17/09 - Recovery Well Underway, Should Be Sustained thru 2010 (E)
07/16/09 - Real GDP Likely Fell Just -1% in 09Q2 Despite Weak Hours (E)
07/15/09 - FOMC Projects Extended High Unemployment Rates (F,e)
06/19/09 - Needed Rebound in Vehicle Production to Provide Big Boost (E)
06/16/09 - Inventories to Batter 09Q2, Could Lead to Surge in 09H2 (E)
05/29/09 - Productivity Points to Jobs Boost Early in Recovery (E, d)
05/20/09 - Fed Now Sees Recovery Beginning Later in 2009-H2 (E)
05/12/09 - Despite Chrysler/GM Woes, Vehicles to Be a Big Plus for 09Q2 (E)
04/17/09 - Inventory Correction Well Underway; Recovery after Mid-09 (E)
04/08/09 - Inventory Cycle Should Add to Mild Recovery After Mid-09 (E)
03/25/09 - Geithner & His PPIPs May Be a One-Hit Wonder (E)
03/11/09 - Recovery Likely to Begin Mid-Year, But Should Be Subpar (E)
03/04/09 - Home Prices Likely to Fall -20% in 2009, Stabilize in 2010 (E)
02/18/09 - FOMC Lowers Near & Long-Term Real Growth Views (E, f)
02/10/09 - Bad Yes, But Not Anything Like Great Depression (E)
01/27/09 - A Massive Stimulus, For 2010; Geithner's Follies (E,g)
01/21/09 - Sizeable Inventory Correction to Hammer 09Q1 Results (E)
01/20/09 - Worst Recession Since WWII; Recovery to Be Subpar (E)

2008

12/17/08 - Spending, Dismal Near-Term, to Improve Some After Mid-2009 (C, e)
11/24/08 - Deleveraging Will Be Substantial, But Not Cataclysmic (E)
11/19/08 - FOMC Expects Recession/Weak Growth Through 2009 (F,e)
11/07/08 - History Says Credit Thaw Will Give Quick Economic Boost (E)
10/22/08 - 'More Terrible Data Ahead, Focus on UI Claims (E)
10/17/08 - 'V' Pattern Emerging: Big Decline in 08Q4, Solid Rebound in Mid-09 (E)
10/15/08 - No Great Depression, But Not Like '87 Crash Either (E)
07/29/08 - Soft Business Lending Reflects Demand & Supply Shift (E,d)
07/15/08 - Oil, Fannie Mae May Delay, But Not Stop, Fed Tightening (F,e)
06/23/08 - Fed Less Fearful of Late '08 Recession (F,e)
05/21/08 - FOMC Minutes: Rate Cuts Over, Forecast Implies Hikes (F,e)
04/15/08 - Economy Not Doing That Badly, But Long-Term Outlook Drab (E)
03/20/08 - Housing Activity to Trough by Summer; Jobs Prices by 2009 (E)
03/07/08 - FMI Sees Real GDP Growth as Low as 0% for 08Q1-Q3 (E)
02/27/08 - Little Fiscal Boost Until 08Q3, After Worst Has Passed (G, e)
02/19/08 - Outside Financial Sector, Economy Functioning Surprisingly Well (E)
02/12/08 - Claims, Household Jobs Show No Cycle Turning Point (Yet)  (L,e)
02/11/08 - 08H2 Rebound as Drag from Oil, Credit, Housing Recedes (E)


2007

01/11/08 - Housing to Exert Only Moderate Drag on 2008 Economy (E)
12/20/07 - Poor Have Outpaced Rich & Everyone Else in Last Decade (D,e)
11/13/07 - Massive Subprime Writedowns Set Stage for Healthier System (E)
11/08/07 - Downside Risks Rising, Negative Growth Possible 07Q4 (E, f)
10/22/07 - Exports Helping Economy Through Soft Patch (E, i)
10/16/07 - 07Q3 Real GDP Up +3.5%; Moderate Soft Patch Coming (E)
10/12/07 - Housing Job Losses Understated, But No Disaster Ahead (E,d)
10/04/07 - Economy Looks to Be Firming; Odds for Rate Cuts Receding (E,f)
09/12/07 - Real Home Prices Face Prolonged Drop, Spending Impact Modest (E)
07/25/07 - Dollar Decline to Have Modest Impact on Trade Deficit (E,d)
07/16/07 - Real Consumer Spending Should Recover After 07Q2 Lull (C,e)
07/13/07 - Starkly Higher Inflation Overshadows Real GDP Rebound (E)
05/09/07 - Surge in Real GDP a Growing Possibility for 07H2 (E)
05/04/07 - Foreign Demand Driving Civilian Aircraft Business (E)
04/19/07 - Illegal Immigration Is Not Concealing Housing Job Losses (E)
04/19/07 - Inventory Correction Dampened 07Q1GDP, Now Nearly Done (E)
04/16/07 - Housing Job Losses Likely Understated, Still No Major Threat (E, d)
04/10/07 - Weather Helped & Hurt Recent Data; Trend Remains Temperate (D, e)
04/06/07 - Leading Indicators Not a Reliable Sign of Weakness Ahead (D, e)
03/16/07 - Subprime Mortgage Impact Negative, But Exaggerated (E)
02/23/07 - Housing Inflation Should Show Little Relief in '07 (E)
0/208/07 - Ex-Vehicle Inventories Still Need Correction in 07Q1 (E)
01/26/07 - Subprime Mortgage Woes Pose No Major Economic Threat (E)
01/05/07 - Vehicle Distortions to Cut GDP, Won't Put Fed in Reverse (E, f)

2006
12/15/06 - Ignore Flashing Signals: Rail Traffic Still OK (E)
11/27/06 - Profits Indicate Economy Is OK, No Recession in Sight (E)
11/15/06 - Recession or Serious Downturn Remain Highly Unlikely (E)
10/25/06 - Economic Slowdown Should Do Little to Curb Core Inflation (E, f)
10/17/06 - Jobs Benchmark Is Far More Than Statistical Noise (E, d)
10/06/06 - Signs Point to Continued Moderate Growth - No Disaster (E)
09/22/06 - '80s Housing Correction, Not '00 Equity Bust, Is Fed Template (F,e)
09/18/06 - Energy Relief Too Late for 06Q3 GDP, Should Aid 06Q4 (E)
09/14/06 - Higher Quality Boosted Home Prices, Will Help Check Decline (E)
09/12/06 - Experience Abroad Suggests Soft Landing for US Housing (E)
08/22/06 - Demographics Weave a Safety Net for Housing Sector  (E)
08/18/06 - Plunge in Builders’ Index Exaggerates Housing Woes (E,d)
07/18/06 - Economic Slowdown To Remain Less Severe Than Many Fear (E)
06/09/06 - Slow Down the Panic Over Moderating Real Growth (E)
04/12/06 - Top Ten People Who Failed Econ 101 (E)
03/14/06 - Very Lean I/S Ratio to Keep Activity Solid a While Longer  (E)
02/23/06 - Do Current Account Deficits (Dark) Matter?  (E,i)
02/16/06 - Blizzard Should Not Melt February Payroll Job Gains (L,e)
02/09/06 - Housing Slowdown Likely to be Prolonged, But Not Too Severe (E,c)
01/13/06 - After 4th Quarter Slump, Consumers Look OK for 2006-H1 (E,c)

2005  
12/14/05 - Despite 05Q3 Surge, Productivity Is No Cure for Inflation (E,d)
12/08/05 - Overdue Inventory Build, Katrina Spending to Spur 05Q4 Real GDP (E,c)
11/21/05 - Housing Slowdown Poses No Major Threat to Jobs Growth (E,d)
10/14/05 - Post-Katrina Round-Up; +2.5% Real GDP/High Inflation in 05Q3 (E)
10/07/05 - Housing Impact, Both Boom & ‘Bust’, Grossly Overestimated (E,c)
09/15/05 - Katrina Likely to Soften 05Q3, Boost Early ’06 Real Growth (E,f)
08/17/05 - Nominal Housing Prices Likely Facing Prolonged Stable Period (E,c)
08/03/05 - Vehicle Discounts Are Not Driving 05Q2-Q3 Real Growth (E)
06/23/05 - Housing Correction to Have Limited Consumer Impact (E)
06/17/05 - 05Q2 Outlook: Lull Ends, Inflation Pressures Persist (E)
05/24/05 - PMI Data Unlikely to Deter Continuing Steady Rate Hikes  (F,e)
05/13/05 - Lull-A-Bye-Bye? Initial Real GDP to be Revised Up (Again) (E, d)
04/15/05 - Housing Strength Shows Fed Has Barely Begun to Tighten (F, e)
03/16/05 - Current Account Deficit Should Peak Soon as Share of GDP (E)
01/12/05 - Revised Production Data Show Less Slack in Economy (E,d)

2004
10/22/04 - Oil Triggering 2nd Lull/Inflation Spurt, Could Last to Early '05  (E)
09/15/04 - Bubbles, Bubbles Seen Everywhere, But Not One to Pop (E)
08/19/04 - Oil, China Are Hurting U.S., But Likely Not Major Threats (E)
08/06/04 - Economy’s Core, Private N-Farm Business, Looks Quite Solid (E)
07/15/04 - 04H1: An Inflation Story  (E, p)
06/22/04 - Solid Equipment, Consumption Growth Sustaining Recovery (E)
06/18/04 - Trade Deficit Poses No Substantial Threat to U.S. Recovery (E)
04/13/04 - With NIPA Improvements, Current Profits ‘Truly’ Strong (E,d)
02/24/04 - Protectionism, Not Outsourcing, Is Real Threat to U.S. Jobs (G, e)
01/23/04 - Cash-Rich Firms Spending More on Equipment Hiring to Follow (E)
01/20/04 - Inventories Likely to Add to Real Growth in 03Q4-04H1(E)

2003

12/04/03 - Housing's Rational Exuberance (E)
11/06/03 - Recent GDP Growth Even Stronger Than It First Appears (E)
10/10/03 - Slow Job Creation, Not Job Losses, Behind Weak Payrolls  (E,l)
10/09/03 - Foreign Outsourcing: Not That Big; Effect Likely Positive  (E,l)
10/08/03 - Household-Payroll Job Gap Sent Growth Signal In Early ’02/’03 (E,l)
09/26/03 - UI Claims Propped Up By Manufacturing Woes (D,e)
09/24/03 - Structural Shifts Delaying Job Growth, But Only For A Bit Longer  (E,d)
09/12/03 - Final Sales-Inventory Gap Points To More Solid Growth Near-Term (E)
08/27/03 - Recent Bond Yield Rise No Threat To Strong Economy (E,f)
08/21/03 - Expect Solid Equipment Sector Despite Low Capacity Util. (E)
08/06/03 - Cautious Builders, Bankers Make Housing Bubble-Proof (E,g)
05/09/03 - U.S. Mfg Still Plays Key, Though Reduced, Role (D, l)
05/07/03 - HHold-Payroll Job Gap Suggests Stronger Growth Ahead (E,l)
04/10/03 - Putting March Retail Sales In Perspective  (E)
04/04/03 - Resilient Consumer To Transcend Transitory Softness (E)
04/01/03 - March Payrolls Should Spring Back After Feb Storms (E)
03/12/03 - Solid Growth Delayed, Not Derailed (E,f)
03/06/03 - Blizzard To Put Job Growth Temporarily In Deep Freeze (E,f)
02/25/03 - Higher Energy Prices An Issue, Not A Disaster (E)
02/20/03 - Blizzard, Greenspan Testimony Spark Needless Concerns (F,e)
02/12/03 - Consumption/Equip. Sectors Poised For Better 2003-04(E)
02/11/03 - Productivity Trend Respectable, But Not Miraculous  (E,d)
02/06/03 - Economy Concerns Overblown; Quick Win In Iraq Likely (E)
01/27/03 - Chicago Forecasters See Decent Equity Gains In '03 (E)
01/17/03 - Sluggish Fourth Quarter To Herald Better 2003 (E)
01/16/03 - Data Show Early Signs Of A Manufacturing Revival (E)

2002
11/18/02 - It’s Beginning To Look A Lot Like Recovery – Sort Of  (E)
10/23/02 - Sluggish U.S. Economy To Continue Into ‘03 (E)
09/25/02 - U.S. And Japanese Bubbles: No Comparison (E,f)
08/07/02 - GDP Revisions More In Line With How Economy Felt (E,d)
08/05/02 - ISM Index Changes Not Leading Recession Indicator (D,e)
07/12/02 - Odds & Ends: Rail Traffic, Int'l Trade, Hoenig The Hawk (E,f)
07/10/02 - Equipment Spending: You've Got To Admit It's Getting Better (D,e)
07/03/02 - WSJ Mid-Year Economic Forecasting Survey Recap (E,f)
06/05/02 - Odds & Ends: Vehicle Sales, Stocks, Payroll Revisions (E,f,d)
05/08/02 - Inventory/Sales Gap Still Wide, An Encouraging Sign (D,e)
05/03/02 - Confronting Greenspan's Final Sales Pessimism (D,e,f)
05/02/02 - Defense Hike: Short-Term Positive, Long-Term Negative (E,g)
04/17/02 - Despite Greenspan, Good Chance Of June Rate Hike (F,e)
04/04/02 - Odds & Ends: March Jobs/Auto Sales, Middle East... (D,e)
04/03/02 - Service Consumption: Medical Care Rises In Importance (D,e)
03/20/02 - Service Sector Share Of U.S. Economy, Revisited (D,e)
03/19/02 - Is The U.S. An Increasingly Service-Oriented Economy? (D,e)
02/19/02 - Rapid Depreciation Of High-Tech Goods Aids Adjustment (E,d)
02/14/02 - Given Nominal Growth, Earnings Forecasts Too Optimistic (E,d,t)
02/08/02 - The "New Economy" Is Not Dead (E,d)
02/06/02 - CBO Budget More Relevant Than OMB; Stimulus DOA (G,e)
01/17/02 - Beware Of False Signals, Recession May Not Be Over (D,e)
01/14/02 - All Quiet On The Inflation Front (P,f,e)

2001
12/13/01 - High-Tech Excesses Not As Severe As Believed (D,e)
12/12/01 - Do Not Expect Rate Hike Until PM Index Rises Above 54 (F,e,p)
12/05/01 - It's A Mad, Mad Economy (E)
11/28/01 - High Median CPI Readings Not A Concern (P,c,e)
11/27/01 - Odds & Ends: Holiday Sales, Commodity Price Analysis (E,c)
11/08/01 - FMI Says "Dream On" To Those Expecting Bull Market (E,d)
10/18/01 - Greenspan Tones Down Optimistic Productivity View (F,e)
10/10/01 - Less Int'l Trade Flows Likely Due To 9/11 (I,e)
10/08/01 - FMI's Timeline For The Post-9/11 Economy (E)
10/04/01 - Real Short Rates Are Not That Low (E,f,t)
10/02/01 - The Sky Is Not Falling! The Sky Is Not Falling! (E,c)
09/20/01 - Policy Vs. Uncertainty: Economy Weak Near-Term (E,f,g)
09/13/01 - Economic Implications Of September 11 Tragedy (E,f,g)
09/07/01 - Baily's Analysis Of "New Economy" Productivity (E,f)
09/06/01 - Reexamining The August Rise In The Mfg PM (D,e)
08/08/01 - July's Unchanged Jobless Rate A "Head Fake" (L,e)
07/25/01 - GOP-Created Lockbox Is Perverse Policy Constraint (G,e)
07/17/01 - High-Tech Production "Down For The Count" (D,e)
07/13/01 - Consensus Fed & GDP Forecasts Incongruous (F,e)
06/26/01 - NIPA Profits More Representative Than S&P (D,e)
06/15/01 - Revisiting Fed Policy's Impact On Inflation Trends (P,f,e)
06/12/01 - Like '68 Surcharge, '01 Tax Cut Will Have Limited Impact (E,c,g)
05/18/01 - FMI Does Not See Inflation Problem Now Or Later (P,e)
05/14/01 - High-Tech Production Growth At 26 Year Low (D,e)
05/09/01 - Housing Sector In New Business Cycle Role (E)
05/03/01 - Making Sense Of The Economy's Mixed Signals (E)
04/19/01 - High-Tech Sector Weaker Than It First Appears (D,e,f)
04/17/01 - Bush Tax Cut Should Aid Consumers In 2001 (G,e,c)
04/06/01 - Steepening Yield Curve Points To Recovery (T,f,e)
04/03/01 - Fed Forcing Investors To Take Responsibility (F,e)
03/28/01 - System Will Be Okay Without Fed Hand-Holding (E,c,f)
03/15/01 - Despite Fed, Big  '01 Equipment Spending Cuts (E,f)
03/14/01 - Current Slowdown Unique in 2 Important Ways (E,l)
03/02/01 - Official Bush Estimates Out: Tax Cut Still Modest (G,e)
02/22/01 - Still Early, But Tax Refund Story Appears Dull (E,g)
02/21/01 - Nervous Analysts Looking In All The Wrong Places (E,c,l)
02/09/01 - Bush Tax Plan Not That Historically Large (G,e)
02/08/01 - Highlights Of Tax Legislation: 1980's & 1990s (G,e)
02/08/01 - Highlights Of Tax Legislation: 1960s & 1970s (G,e)
02/06/01 - Confidence & Consumption Growth Often Unrelated (E,c)
01/24/01 - January Data Improves After Distorted December (E,d)
01/22/01 - Unusual For Both Oil & Natural Gas Prices To Surge (E)
01/16/01 - Stock Market Should Improve By Spring (E,f)
01/10/01 - FMI's Take On The Unexpected Rate Cut (F,e)
01/09/01 - The Greenspan Diaries (F,e)
 
2000
12/07/00 - Low Mfg PM Not Alarming; Non-Mfg PM Strong (E)
12/01/00 - Surge In Claims Cause For Concern, Not Panic (L,e)
11/14/00 - Wicksell Suggests No Rate Cuts Near-Term (T,f,e)
11/07/00 - Overall Inventory Stocks Far From Excessive (E)
11/07/00 - Growth Moderating, But No Major Slowdown (E,f) 
10/20/00 - Appreciation Of Dollar Should Not Last (E)
10/20/00 - Swap Curve Has Narrowed, Still Not Inverted (F,e,t)
10/13/00 - Consumption, Income, & Wealth: Part II (C,e,t)
10/12/00 - Consumption, Income, & Wealth: Part I (C,e,t)
09/25/00 - Economic Correction Nearly Over; Hi-Tech Still Solid (E) 
09/21/00 - Examining Shifts In Computer & Software Prices (P,e)
09/15/00 - What's "Hot" & What's "Not" In Economics (E)
09/08/00 - Hi-Tech Threatening Overall Price Stability Near-Term (P,e)
09/07/00 - Growth Is Slowing; Focus On The Right Questions (E,f)
08/24/00 - Uncovering the New Consensus Paradigm, Part II (E,t)
08/21/00 - Fed's Post-Meeting Statement May Have Surprises (F,e)
08/16/00 - Uncovering The New Consensus Paradigm, Part I (E,t)
08/03/00 - Nominal GDP Growth Now Exceeds Long Yields (E,f)
07/27/00 - Letter To Greenspan: Consensus Too Optimistic (E,f)
07/20/00 - Many Expect Another Long No-Rate Hike Period (F,e)
07/12/00 - Even if Consensus Correct, Fed To Tighten More (E,f)
07/06/00 - PM Down But Broader Non-Mfg PM Strong (E,d)
06/16/00 - Crisis Not Being Signaled By Record Swap Spreads (E)
06/12/00 - Housing Fell In Late 80s; Yet, Real Growth Was Solid (E)
05/08/00 - 3.9% Jobless Rate Not A Census Hiring Fluke (L,f,e)
04/14/00 - AG Signals That Fed Unlikely To Bail Out Investors Even If Turmoil Continues (F,e,p)
04/12/00 - Except Treasuries, Most Long Rates Up Measurably Since 6/99 (F,e)
03/28/00 - Even After Recent Hikes, Real Federal Funds Rate Not Very High (F,e)
03/17/00 - Economy Looks Good; Still Threat Of Higher Inflation (E,p)
03/03/00 - Whoa Nelly -The Economy Remains Very Hot (E)
02/10/00 - No U.S. Slowdown In '00 & Likely Well Beyond (E)

1999
11/04/99 - U.S. Economy Sailing Into A Temporary 'Dead Calm' (E,f,d)
09/09/99 - Improving Growth Abroad Might Lead To Higher Inflation (P,e)
08/18/99 - Traditional End To Untraditional (Groundhog Day) Business Cycle Starting To Emerge (E)
07/29/99 - Economy Poised For More Solid Growth; Labor Markets Still Tightening (E,f,l)
06/24/99 - Today's Economy Not Comparable To '87, '94, '97; Fed Apt To Tighten Gradually (E,f)
06/10/99 - Economy Solid; Lean Inventories Portend Strong 99H2 (E)
06/07/99 - Taylor Rule Has Little To Say About Fed Policy Today (F,e)
04/23/99 - Improving Int'l Situation Bolstering U.S, Profits (E,i,c)
04/16/99 - Import Price Not As Deflationary As They Had Been (D,p,e)
04/15/99 - Surprise: No Lull In U.S. Economy Yet; Probably Soon (E)
04/07/99 - Economy Still Solid But Near-Term More Signs Of  Softness (E,f)
03/25/99 - U.S. Trade Bal. To Trough In '99, Aided By  Improving Growth Abroad (Esp. Asia) & Stable Dollar (E,i)
03/05/99 - Economy Still Eden-Like; Greenspan May Not Be Reappointed; Spending Caps Likely To Be Altered (E,f,g)
02/24/99 - 2nd Half Of 1990s Similar To First Half Of 1960s (E)
02/05/99 - U.S. Economy Continues To Roll; Fed Announces Key Change (E,f)
02/05/99 - Chicago Forecasters See Somewhat Lower Rates In '99 (E)
01/27/99 - U.S. Economy Surged In Q4; On Track For More In '99 (E)
01/21/99 - U.S. Trade Balance Should Trough Soon (E,i)
01/11/99 - FMI Sees Stronger  '99; Fed Apt To Stay On Sidelines (E,f)

1998
12/23/98 - Some But Not Many Signs Of Economy Slowing (E)
11/30/98 - Claims Often A Misleading Indicator In Expansions (L,e)
11/30/98 - Industrial Production & Capacity Revised Up A Bit (D,e)
11/11/98 - Policymakers Actions Calm Markets Worldwide; U.S. Economy Slowing, But Recession Unlikely    (E,f,i)
11/06/98 - Goldilocks Confused About Economy's Temperature (E,f)
10/23/98 - 'Pork Barrel' Politics Returning; Economy Slowing (G, e, f)
10/15/98 - Fed Ease: More Insurance Against Recession (F,e)
10/02/98 - Very Weak U.S. Economy Ahead; Lots Of Fed Ease Probable Near-Term (F,e)
09/23/98 - Monitoring Asia's Impact On The U.S. Economy (I,e,d)
09/09/98 - Both Monetary & Fiscal Stimulation Likely In 1999 (F,g,e)
09/03/98 - With Capital Stock Replenished & Profits Dismal, Equipment Spending Should Weaken Noticeably (E,t)
07/08/98 - NAPM Now Releasing Non-Mfg Survey Result; Non-Mfg Doing Much Better Than Manufacturing   (D,e)
06/04/98 - International Trade Drag & Domestic Strength Combination Likely To Keep Fed On Sidelines  (E,f,i)
05/15/98 - Inventory Excesses Not As Large As Recent Data Suggest  (E)
03/25/98 - Weather's Impact On Jobs & Other Indicators (D,e)
03/11/98 - Key Indicators Suggest U.S. Economy To Remain Robust    (E)
03/06/98 - Asian Turmoil Should Impact Real Trade Deficit Much More Than Nominal Trade Deficit  (E,i)
02/12/98 - Asia Having Less Impact Than Expected So Far  (E,i)
02/02/98 - Chicago Forecasters See Lower Funds Rate  (E)
01/20/98 - Political Climate Favors Tax Cut In 1998    (E,g)
01/09/98 - Recent Narrowing In Yield Curve Does Not Point To Weaker Economy  (F,e,t)
 
1997
12/12/97 - Available Capacity Revised Up Significantly  (D,e)
11/06/97 - Analysts Completely Misjudged 97Q1-Q3 Economic Growth  (E)
10/29/97 - Comparing The 1987 & 1997 Stock Market Declines   (E)
10/24/97 - Asian Turmoil To Subtract ¼% From US 1998 Real Growth   (E,i)
10/08/97 - FMI’s Reflections On Growth, Inflation, Fed Policy  (E,f)
09/25/97 - Year 2000 Problem Will Not Have Catastrophic Impact  (E)
09/11/97 - Current Expansion Pales Against The 1980’s  (E)
08/20/97 - El Niño's Impact On Global Weather  (E)
07/02/97 - 10-Year Note-Nominal GDP Premium Is Relatively Low  (E,t)
06/13/97 - FMI’s Reflections On June Reports  (E)
05/02/97 - Is The Economy Slowing? We Don’t Think So!  (E)
04/11/97 - Sales/Inventory Points To Continuing Solid Growth (E)
04/07/97 - What The Stock & Bond Markets Typically Do After The Fed Tightens (F,e)
02/07/97 - M2 Growth Surges; Early January Sales Solid  (E,f)
01/02/97 - Office Vacancies Decline; Nonresidential Structure Spending To Remain Solid  (E)
 
1995-1996
12/03/96 - 96Q3 Statistical Discrepancy Suggests That GDP Is Being Understated   (D,e)
11/25/96 - Real Growth & Inflation Stable Due To Structural Change & Lack Of Shocks  (E)
11/20/96 - The Case For A Stronger Dollar  (E,i)
11/15/96 - NIPA Statistical Discrepancy Is Less Significant Than It Appears  (E,d)
11/06/96 - Foreign 'Dumping' Has Held Down U.S. Growth (E,i)
10/25/96 - Gov't Sector To Weigh Less On GDP Growth  (G,e)
10/10/96 - Historical Analysis Of Payroll Job Changes  (D,l,e)
10/03/96 - Sept Jobs Could Be Weak; Bonds Should Rally  (E)
09/06/96 - Mfg Sector, Including NAPM, Showing More Strength   (E)
08/15/96 - The Taylor Rule Suggests Rising Rates In 1996-97  (T,e)
08/13/96 - Lean Inventories Differentiate Today's Economy From Early 1995's  (E)
07/31/96 - Economy Not Slowing As Much As Data Suggests  (E)
06/06/96 - Worldwide Population Shifts Will Alter U.S. Export Patterns  (L,e,d)
05/17/96 - Left-Over Clinton Appropriations Stimulative  (E,g)
05/15/96 - Sales Growing Faster Than Inventories; Solid GDP Growth Should Follow  (E)
04/16/96 - GM Strike & Solid Sales Produce Lean Auto Invent.  (E)
01/26/96 - Excessive Stocks To Be Corrected Through Little Or No Inventory Growth In 96H1  (E)
12/05/95 - Review Of Upcoming Payroll Jobs Data; Effect Of Federal Shutdown  (L,e)
10/06/95 - Current Economy Neither Weakening Nor Improving; Future Looks Good  (E)
09/25/95 - Trade Deficit Fails To Shrink; Foreign Firms Sustain Output With Cheap Exports (E,i)
09/15/95 - FMI's Explanation Of Recent Anomalies In Trade & Inflation (E,p)
09/07/95 - Lower Rates Spurring Cyclical Areas (E)
08/18/95 - Recent Surprises: Drop In Claims, Rise In Consumption & PM Index  (E)
07/21/95 - End To Declining Rail Traffic Growth Consistent With Moderate Real GDP Growth  (E)
07/14/95 - Chain-Weight Real GDP Measure To Become Official In December  (E,d)
06/07/95 - Export & Import Inflation At Record Highs  (E,i)
05/19/95 - Flat Railcar Traffic Consistent With Soft Economy (E)
04/12/95 - Economy In Mini Inventory Cycle; Trade Sector To Be Volatile (E)
02/27/95 - Capacity Utilization Suggests Core CPI To Accelerate In Coming Year  (P,l,e)
02/16/95 - Despite Expectations, Retail Ex-Auto Invent Decline (E)
02/13/95 - Ratio of Commodity Prices To Unemployment Insurance Still Positive (E)
01/26/95 - Durable Share of Goods Consumption Usually Falls Before A Slowdown (E,c)
01/19/95 - Inventory Growth Exceeds Sales Growth; Suggests Slow Down  (E)
01/06/95 - Mexican Crisis' Impact On U.S. Real GDP Growth Should Be Modest (E,i)



Recent Analysis Data Reports Short Pieces About FMI

Last Modified: Tuesday, October 27, 2009 01:45 PM. Copyright © 1998 Free Market, Inc. All rights reserved.